Microseismic evolution and deep sliding surface identification of the Baige Landslide near the Jinsha River

The Baige Landslide, which occurred twice within a month near the Jinsha River in Tibet, China, posed a threat to more than 3000 people. The area of the post-sliding fracture zone continues to expand, potentially triggering further landslides due to worsening microfractures in the deep rock mass. This study implemented a microseismic monitoring system in the high-risk zone of the Baige Landslide to analyse the evolving damage processes within the deep rock mass. The spatial and temporal distributions of microseismic events, changes in energy, development of displacements, and predicted magnitudes were examined. Based on microseismic data from the Baige Landslide, a method has been proposed to predict and identify the deep sliding surface using microseismic parameter fitting and verification of surface macroscopic cracks. The results indicate a close correlation between the sliding surfaces identified via microseismic parameter fitting and those identified through monitoring deep deformations and surface crack displacements. These findings provide a foundational framework for future mitigation and stability assessments of the Baige Landslide in the Jinsha River area, and offer valuable insights into the prediction of sliding surfaces in other potentially unstable landslide scenarios.