Detecting, Modelling and Responding to Effusive Eruptions
CONTAINS OPEN ACCESS
For effusive volcanoes in resource-poor regions, there is a pressing need for a crisis response-chain bridging the global scientific community to allow provision of standard products for timely humanitarian response. As a first step in attaining this need, this Special Publication provides a complete directory of current operational capabilities for monitoring effusive eruptions. This volume also reviews the state-of-the-art in terms of satellite-based volcano hot-spot tracking and lava-flow simulation. These capabilities are demonstrated using case studies taken from well-known effusive events that have occurred worldwide over the last two decades at volcanoes such as Piton de la Fournaise, Etna, Stromboli and Kilauea. We also provide case-type response models implemented at the same volcanoes, as well as the results of a community-wide drill used to test a fully-integrated response focused on an operational hazard-GIS. Finally, the objectives and recommendations of the ‘Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters’ working group are laid out in a statement of community needs by its members.
MAGFLOW: a physics-based model for the dynamics of lava-flow emplacement
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Published:January 01, 2016
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CiteCitation
Annalisa Cappello, Alexis Hérault, Giuseppe Bilotta, Gaetana Ganci, Ciro Del Negro, 2016. "MAGFLOW: a physics-based model for the dynamics of lava-flow emplacement", Detecting, Modelling and Responding to Effusive Eruptions, A. J. L. Harris, T. De Groeve, F. Garel, S. A. Carn
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Abstract
The MAGFLOW model for lava-flow simulations is based on the cellular automaton (CA) approach, and uses a physical model for the thermal and rheological evolution of the flowing lava. We discuss the potential of MAGFLOW to improve our understanding of the dynamics of lava-flow emplacement and our ability to assess lava-flow hazards. Sensitivity analysis of the input parameters controlling the evolution function of the automaton demonstrates that water content and solidus temperatures are the parameters to which MAGFLOW is most sensitive. Additional tests also indicate that temporal changes in effusion rate strongly influence the accuracy of the predictive modelling of lava-flow paths. The parallel implementation of MAGFLOW on graphic processing units (GPUs) can achieve speed-ups of two orders of magnitude relative to the corresponding serial implementation, providing a lava-flow simulation spanning several days of eruption in just a few minutes. We describe and demonstrate the operation of MAGFLOW using two case studies from Mt Etna: one is a reconstruction of the detailed chronology of the lava-flow emplacement during the 2006 flank eruption; and the other is the production of the lava-flow hazard map of the persistent eruptive activity at the summit craters.
- accuracy
- case studies
- cellular automata
- computer programs
- computers
- data processing
- dynamics
- effusion
- emplacement
- eruptions
- Europe
- flow mechanism
- functions
- geologic hazards
- graphic display
- Italy
- lava flows
- mapping
- mathematical methods
- Mount Etna
- natural hazards
- numerical models
- parallel processing
- physical models
- prediction
- rates
- reliability
- rheology
- risk assessment
- risk management
- sensitivity analysis
- Sicily Italy
- simulation
- Southern Europe
- temperature
- viscosity
- visualization
- volcanic risk
- water content
- MAGFLOW
- CUDA