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Geological models are required because we do not have complete knowledge, in time or space, of the system of interest. Models are constructed in an attempt to represent the system and its behaviour based on interpretation of observations and measurements (samples) of the system, combined with informed judgement (expert opinion) and, generally, constrained for convenience by the limitations of the modelling medium. Geological models are inherently uncertain; broadly those uncertainties can be classified as epistemic (knowledge based) or aleatory (reflecting the variability of the system). Traditional, quantitative methods of uncertainty analysis address the aleatory uncertainties but do not recognize...

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