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The scenario-based reservoir modelling method places a strong emphasis on the deterministic control of the model design, contrasting with strongly probabilistic approaches in which effort is focused on the ‘richness’ of a geostatistical algorithm to derive multiple stochastic realizations. Scenario-based approaches also differ from traditional ‘rationalist’ modelling, which often involves the construction of only a single, best-guess or base-case model. The advantage of scenario modelling is that there is no requirement to anchor on a preferred, base-case model, and it is argued here that selection of a base case is detrimental to achieving appropriately wide uncertainty ranges. Multiple-deterministic scenario...

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