Abstract

Certain problems of geological search and decision can be treated stochastically. The basic equation for search and decision problems is  
formula
where p is the probability of a success and rt and rs, are radii of circles inscribed in the respective target and search areas. Completely blind search, or “wildcatting” involves contingent probability. The equation for successful wildcatting of a linear target in a linear belt is  
formula
where ca is the area of a random target and bd is the area of a randomly searched belt.
All geologic decisions, however insignificant, have economic implications when integrated into the search effort. The economic aspect of the search game may be expressed by the equation  
formula
where X is the interest on investment B, n is the number of trials, T/S is the probability of success, a is net value of a discovery, rt and rs, are radii of target and search areas, b is the exploration cost, and K represents the total gain of the game.

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