A close spatial and temporal association between three aseismic uplift episodes and subsequent large (M ≈ 7) earthquakes on the Izu Peninsula, Japan, suggests a causal relation. Quaternary geology, as well as studies by other workers, indicates a volcanic origin for the observed uplift, and we use a simple inflation model constrained by leveling data to compute the expected increments in normal and shear stress across faults that ruptured in the earthquakes. Using a Mohr-Coulomb criterion, we find that in two cases out of three, stress changes induced by inflation are in the correct sense to trigger failure. Although changes are no more than a few bars, they represent the equivalent of several decades to a century of secular stress buildup.

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