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Studies of the type, extent, and volume of Holocene pyroclastic and lahar deposits have concluded that future eruptions of El Misti volcano, even if moderate in magnitude, will pose a serious threat to the city of Arequipa, Peru. After describing the most probable volcanic scenarios at El Misti, this paper concentrates on lahar and flood risk assessment. Scenarios were derived with the help of the simulation codes LAHARZ and TITAN2D. The lahar risk assessment varies significantly depending on the method selected. LAHARZ simulations indicate that a considerable part of the urban areas and infrastructure could be severely affected. Losses due...

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