Limitations of the short earthquake record for seismicity and seismic hazard studies
Published:January 01, 2007
Laura Swafford, Seth Stein, 2007. "Limitations of the short earthquake record for seismicity and seismic hazard studies", Continental Intraplate Earthquakes: Science, Hazard, and Policy Issues, Seth Stein, Stéphane Mazzotti
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Attempts to study earthquake recurrence in space and time are limited by the short history of instrumental seismology compared to the long and variable recurrence time of large earthquakes. As a result, apparent concentrations and gaps in seismicity and hence seismic hazard within a seismic zone, especially where deformation rates are slow (<10 mm/yr), are likely to simply reflect the short earthquake record. Simple numerical simulations indicate that if seismicity were uniform within a tectonically similar seismic zone, such as the Atlantic coast of Canada, St. Lawrence valley, or the coast of North Africa, thousands of years of record would...