Abstract Once highlighted for having significant shale gas resource potential, the Bowland Basin has been at the centre of both scientific and political controversy over the last decade. Previous shale gas resource estimates range from 10 3 to 10 1 TCF. Repeated events of induced seismicity following hydraulic fracturing operations led to an indefinite government moratorium and abandonment of operations across the mainland UK. We use apatite fission-track analyses to investigate the magnitude and timing of post-Triassic uplift and exhumation. Results indicate that maximum palaeotemperatures of 90–100°C were reached in the stratigraphically younger Sherwood Sandstone. We combine palaeotemperature predictions to constrain palaeo heat flow and erosion in regional basin models for the first time. Our results indicate variable maximum Late Cretaceous palaeo heat flow values of 62.5–80 mW m −2 and the removal of 800–1500 m of post-Triassic strata at wells across the basin. Regional 2D basin modelling indicates a gas-in-place estimate of 131 ± 64 TCF for the Bowland Shale. This reduces to a resource potential of 13.1 ± 6.4 TCF, assuming a recovery factor of 10%. These values are significantly lower than previous resource estimates and reflect the highly complex nature of the Bowland Basin and relatively unknown history of post-Triassic uplift, exhumation and erosion.