Abstract The 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and resulting damage is often referred to as 3.11 after the date on which it took place. Leading to almost 20 000 people dead or missing, a major nuclear disaster and severe economic damage, 3.11 represents the biggest challenge faced by Japan since the end of World War II. Before 3.11, the possibility of a Mw 9 earthquake in this area was not generally recognized, highlighting the need to reassess seismic risk in NE Japan. The large amount of new quantitative data covering a range of disciplines and from onshore and offshore studies makes 3.11 an important case study that can contribute to improving our understanding of tsunamis, including their formation, their effects on coastal regions and the effectiveness of defensive measures old and new. Geological studies have a key role to play in this new phase of tsunami studies and this is the only method available for determining recurrence intervals over timescales of thousands of years. Data from 3.11 have improved our ability to identify sedimentary records of tsunami events and to estimate tsunami size from geological data. More complete databases will provide invaluable information for long-term planning of coastal regions in convergent plate margins.

Abstract Tsunami warning traditionally has been perceived within the scientific community as an essentially deterministic process. This may be satisfactory in regions where tsunami monitoring is very extensive and the uncertainty in tsunami forecasting is low. However, where there is significant uncertainty, the worthy aspiration to achieve a zero-tolerance policy on tsunami fatalities is set against the reduction in public alert compliance associated with previous false alerts. A risk-informed approach is presented, which outlines a decision process that allows for a decline in alert compliance due to false alerts. This risk-informed approach assesses probabilistically the tsunamigenicity of fault rupture, using data not just from historical catalogues but also the geological record. Prior probabilities could be automatically updated in real time by a Bayesian Belief Network from observations obtained in real time: earthquake depth information; pressure sensor recordings, tide gauge measurements; or visual reports of coastal inundation. A decision to issue a general evacuation warning in a specific region might be made provided the updated posterior probability reached a critical threshold.

Abstract Up until the late 1980s geology contributed very little to the study of tsunamis because most were generated by earthquakes which were mainly the domain of seismologists. In 1987–88 however, sediments deposited as tsunamis flooded land were discovered. Subsequently they began to be widely used to identify prehistorical tsunami events, providing a longer-term record than previously available from historical accounts. The sediments offered an opportunity to better define tsunami frequency that could underpin improved risk assessment. When over 2200 people died from a catastrophic tsunami in Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 1998, and a submarine landslide was controversially proven to be the mechanism, marine geologists provided the leadership that led to the identification of this previously unrecognized danger. The catastrophic tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004 confirmed the critical importance of sedimentological research in understanding tsunamis. In 2011, the Japan earthquake and tsunami further confirmed the importance of both sediments in tsunami hazard mitigation and the dangers from seabed sediment failures in tsunami generation. Here we recount the history of geological involvement in tsunami science and its importance in advancing understanding of the extent, magnitude and nature of the hazard from tsunamis.

Abstract Central America is a small and culturally homogeneous region that, since the 1990s, has experienced economic and political integration of its six countries, which share the same threats of volcanic eruptions, disastrous earthquakes and tsunamis. The Pacific coastline of 1700 km is common for Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, and the Pacific subduction zone has the potential for creating huge tsunamis that threaten this coast. In addition to the natural hazard, the growing tourist industry is expanding its infrastructure along the Pacific beaches, which again enhances the exposure and tsunami risk. Even though the 1992 tsunami disaster in Nicaragua did not severely hit the tourist beaches, it raised the risk awareness, and special attention is now given to ‘slow’ earthquakes that may be modest in shaking while still having a large tsunami potential. The tsunami hazard mapping is well advanced in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and El Salvador, and initiatives are ongoing to improve the mapping in all countries. National systems for early warning were established in Nicaragua and El Salvador, while the other four countries rely on rapid information from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. Mitigation measures and information campaigns are presently conducted on a national basis in all countries, but a regional centre for early tsunami warning and coordinated information campaigns (CATAC) is expected to become operational in the near future.