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third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast

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Journal Article
Published: 28 February 2017
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2017) 107 (3): 1049-1081.
... for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component...
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Journal Article
Published: 10 March 2015
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2015) 105 (2A): 511-543.
... Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time‐dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time‐independent model published previously, renewal models are utilized...
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Journal Article
Published: 12 July 2017
Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (5): 1259-1267.
.... , and Madden C. , et al. 2015 . Long‐term, time‐dependent probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) , Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 105 , 511 – 543 , doi: 10.1785/0120140093 . Field E. H. Dawson T. E. Felzer K. R. Frankel...
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Journal Article
Published: 03 October 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (6): 2337-2346.
...Edward H. Field; Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities ABSTRACT This article discusses ways in which earthquake rupture forecast models might be improved. Because changes are most easily described in the context of specific models, the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture...
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Journal Article
Published: 18 April 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1420-1434.
... developed the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) model. We find that the inclusion of faults only makes a difference for hazard and risk metrics that are dominated by large‐event likelihoods. We also show how the ShakeMap of a mainshock...
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Journal Article
Published: 13 February 2018
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (2): 729-741.
...Morgan T. Page; Nicholas J. van der Elst Abstract Epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) catalogs generated from the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) model are unique in that they are the first to combine a complex, fault‐based long‐term forecast with short‐term...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1122-1180.
.... Weldon, II; Yuehua Zeng Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP14) present the time‐independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 August 2009
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2009) 99 (4): 2053-2107.
...E. H. Field; T. E. Dawson; K. R. Felzer; A. D. Frankel; V. Gupta; T. H. Jordan; T. Parsons; M. D. Petersen; R. S. Stein; R. J. Weldon, II; C. J. Wills Abstract The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities ( WGCEP , 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 January 2007
Seismological Research Letters (2007) 78 (1): 99-109.
... version of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probability (WGCEP) uniform California earthquake rupture forecast model (UCERF 1.0). The time-independent and time-dependent hazard maps and hazard curves provide a basis for comparison for the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) presented...
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Journal Article
Published: 28 March 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (3): 1049-1061.
... in the input model. These short‐term hazard levels are similar to active regions in California. During 2017, M ≥ 3 earthquakes also occurred in or near Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. The 2018 one‐year forecast...
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Journal Article
Published: 06 September 2017
Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (6): 1539-1552.
... seismograms for over 400,000 events per site of interest ( Zhao et al. , 2006 ). These seismograms are processed to obtain intensity measures, which are then combined with rates of events from the earthquake rupture forecast to produce a PSHA hazard curve. Hazard curves for hundreds of sites are combined...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 February 2011
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2011) 101 (1): 404-412.
... C. J. ( 2009 ). Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2) , Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99 , 2053 - 2107 . Field E. H. Johnson D. D. Dolan J. F. ( 1999 ). A mutually consistent seismic-hazard source model for Southern California , Bull. Seismol...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 June 2012
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2012) 102 (3): 1135-1154.
... and reconstruction of preceding earthquakes along the 1857 rupture trace have contributed to formulation of the characteristic earthquake ( CEM ) and uniform‐slip models ( USM ) for earthquake recurrence that find wide application in seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting. We used the high‐resolution...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 February 2006
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2006) 96 (1): 90-106.
...Agnès Helmstetter; Yan Y. Kagan; David D. Jackson Abstract We have initially developed a time-independent forecast for southern California by smoothing the locations of magnitude 2 and larger earthquakes. We show that using small m ≥2 earthquakes gives a reasonably good prediction of m ≥5...
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Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1238-1250.
... K. M. Jordan T. H. Madden C. , and Michael A. J. , et al. 2015 . Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) , Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 105 , no.  2 , 511 – 543 , doi: 10.1785/0120140093 . Gerstenberger M...
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Image
Example 100‐year slice from a 10,000‐year <b>third</b> <b>Uniform</b> <b>California</b> Earthqua...
Published: 18 April 2018
Figure 1. Example 100‐year slice from a 10,000‐year third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (U3ETAS) simulation (red) and comparison to a Poisson model (black), for which event times have been randomized to produce the latter. (a) Occurrence
Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1262-1271.
...‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) , Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 105 , no.  2A , 511 – 543 . Field E. H. Dawson T. E. Felzer K. R. Frankel A. D. Gupta V. Jordan T. H. Parsons T. Petersen M. D. Stein R. S...
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Journal Article
Published: 29 October 2019
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2019)
... . Field E. H. Arrowsmith R. J. Biasi G. P. Bird P. Dawson T. E. Felzer K. R. Jackson D. D. Johnson K. M. Jordan T. H. , and Madden C. et al. 2014 . Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The time‐independent model , Bull. Seismol. Soc...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 October 2006
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2006) 96 (5): 1624-1633.
..., methods for incorporating model uncertainty are more difficult to implement because of the high degree of dependence between different earthquake-recurrence models. We show that the method used by the 2002 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities ( wgcep -2002) to combine the probability...
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Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1305-1313.
... . A spatiotemporal clustering model for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast , Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 107 , no.  3 , 1049 – 1081 , doi: 10.1785/0120160173 . Gerstenberger M. C. , and Rhoades D. A. 2010 . New Zealand...
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