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operational aftershock forecasts

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Journal Article
Published: 14 November 2022
Seismological Research Letters (2023) 94 (1): 473–484.
... that analyze and plot earthquake sequences and their forecasts to identify which sequences require such intervention. The package includes the Operational Aftershock Forecast (OAF) Viewer, which incorporates the functions into an interactive web environment that can be used to explore aftershock sequences...
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Journal Article
Published: 11 December 2019
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (1): 153–173.
... Information Center. The code used to compute the operational aftershock forecasts can be found at https://github.com/opensha/opensha-oaf (last accessed September 2019). Some plots were made using the Generic Mapping Tools ( Wessel and Smith, 1998 ) and the statistical package R ( https://www.r-project.org...
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Journal Article
Published: 13 April 2022
Seismological Research Letters (2022) 93 (4): 2259–2267.
...Maria Mesimeri; Kristine L. Pankow Abstract We present a magnitude‐dependent aftershock model for the eastern Intermountain West (IMW) that can be used to inform and improve reliability of initial U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operational aftershock forecasts (OAFs). The model is derived after...
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Journal Article
Published: 22 June 2023
Seismological Research Letters (2023) 94 (6): 2565–2568.
... forecasts during ongoing seismic sequences, sometimes called “operational aftershock forecasting” (e.g., in the United States, Michael et al. , 2020 or Japan, Omi et al. , 2019 ), and sometimes called “operational earthquake forecasting” (as suggested by Jordan et al. , 2011 , e.g. in Italy...
Journal Article
Published: 19 July 2017
Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (5): 1241–1251.
... are typical of this area. Utilizing regional variations in productivity could improve operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) by improving the model used immediately after the mainshock. We show this by comparing the daily rate of M ≥ 2 aftershocks to forecasts made with the generic California model...
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Journal Article
Published: 11 December 2019
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (1): 16–18.
.... doi: 10.1785/0220190188 . Michael A. McBride S. K. Hardebeck J. L. Barall M. Martinez E. Page M. T. Van der Elst N. Field E. H. Milner K. R. , and Wein A. M. 2019 . Statistical seismology and communication of the USGS operational aftershock forecasts...
Journal Article
Published: 24 May 2024
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2024)
...Leila Mizrahi; Shyam Nandan; Banu Mena Cabrera; Stefan Wiemer ABSTRACT We present the development and testing of multiple epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS)‐based earthquake forecasting models for Switzerland, aiming to identify suitable candidate models for operational earthquake forecasting...
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Journal Article
Published: 02 September 2020
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (6): 3343–3357.
... et al. , 2014 ). Such forecasts can be produced in the context of both background earthquake hazard and following a large earthquake (i.e., in an aftershock context, sometimes referred to as Operational Aftershock Forecasts) ( U.S. Geological Survey, 2019 ). It reflects the fluctuation...
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Journal Article
Published: 20 September 2016
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2016) 106 (6): 2450–2458.
... many events, including large ones, are missing and large hypocenter determination errors are present due to the automatic detection process of earthquakes before operator inspection and manual compilation. Despite its practical importance, the forecast skill of aftershocks based on such real‐time data...
Journal Article
Published: 26 May 2020
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2020) 110 (4): 1781–1798.
...Yosihiko Ogata; Takahiro Omi ABSTRACT This study considers the possible implementation of the operational short‐term forecasting, and analysis of earthquake occurrences using a real‐time hypocenter catalog of ongoing seismic activity, by reviewing case studies of the aftershocks of the M w 6.4...
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Journal Article
Published: 10 March 2023
Seismological Research Letters (2023) 94 (4): 2003–2013.
... forecasting for a test set of independent data to estimate training performance. After appropriate testing, the software can be used as an Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) method for the next stronger earthquake. For ongoing clusters, it provides near‐real‐time forecasting of a strong aftershock...
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Journal Article
Published: 23 June 2020
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2020) 110 (4): 1736–1751.
... the importance of real‐time data‐quality control for automated operational forecasting. CRS7‐new_FMs is the most complex among our physics‐based forecasts. In this model, we make use of those fault planes that are gradually revealed by aftershocks to resolve the evolving near‐source coseismic stress changes...
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Journal Article
Published: 09 February 2022
Seismological Research Letters (2022) 93 (3): 1601–1618.
... of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (i.e., the real‐ or near‐real‐time predictions of ongoing sequences). Aftershock model validation on a longer timescale is scarcely dealt with in the literature, however. This study addresses this research gap by validating the medium‐term (i.e., months to years) performance...
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Journal Article
Published: 11 April 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (3): 1118–1128.
...Ilaria Spassiani; Warner Marzocchi ABSTRACT The most popular aftershock forecasting model is based on the modified Omori law (MOL), which describes the expected decay of the aftershock given the mainshock’s magnitude. Although such a model is still widely used for operational purposes...
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Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1238–1250.
... known physical mechanism for earthquake triggering and thus a prime candidate for physics‐based operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, the forecast skill of coulomb‐based seismicity models remains controversial, especially compared with empirical statistical models. A previous evaluation...
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