... min of the 4 July 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake. UCERF3‐ETAS, an extension of the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), is the first comprehensive, fault‐based, epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. It produces ensembles of synthetic aftershock sequences both...

...Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Morgan T. Page; William H. Savran; Nicholas van der Elst Abstract We describe recent improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS), which continues to represent our most advanced and complete earthquake forecast...

... to the previously published time‐independent and long‐term time‐dependent forecasts. This combined model, referred to as UCERF3‐ETAS, collectively represents a relaxation of segmentation assumptions, the inclusion of multifault ruptures, an elastic‐rebound model for fault‐based ruptures, and a state‐of‐the‐art...

...Edward Field, M. EERI; Keith Porter, M. EERI; Kevin Milner, M. EERI We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents...

... developed the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) model. We find that the inclusion of faults only makes a difference for hazard and risk metrics that are dominated by large‐event likelihoods. We also show how the ShakeMap of a mainshock...

...Figure 4. Mean depths for bins with more than 20 earthquakes for UCERF3‐ETAS (one hundred 1000‐yr catalogs) and the real catalog. By construction, the UCERF3‐ETAS model does not have depth variation that is present in the real catalog. However, mean depths are not constant in UCERF3‐ETAS...

... sequences (UCERF3‐ETAS) in a pseudoprospective sense. For comparison, we include a version of the model without explicit faults more closely mimicking traditional ETAS models (UCERF3‐NoFaults). We evaluate the forecasts with new metrics developed within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake...

...Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Nicolas Luco ABSTRACT We use the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (UCERF3‐ETAS) to evaluate the effects of declustering and Poisson assumptions on seismic hazard estimates. Although...

... of ∼ 11    km ( Fletcher et al. , 2016 ). (However, this large of a jump is allowed in the UCERF3 epidemic type aftershock sequence [UCERF3‐ETAS] model as a separate, triggered event.) To give a second example, the cumulative azimuth filter in UCERF3 (known colloquially as the “squirrelly‐ness...

... model, UCERF3‐TI ( Field et al. , 2014 ); a long‐term time‐dependent refinement based on Reid‐renewal statistics, UCERF3‐TD ( Field et al. , 2015 ); and a short‐term clustering model based on ETAS statistics, UCERF3‐ETAS ( Field et al. , 2017 ). The model is hierarchical in the sense that the TD...

... forecasting models were used to explore these two respective end‐member cases: a temporal epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model ( Ogata, 1988 ) and the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)‐ETAS model ( Field, Milner, et al. , 2017 ). The temporal ETAS model is a statistical...