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![Comparison of peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr between a better converged recalculation of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) and the published UCERF3 (Field et al., 2014). Shown are hazard ratios plotted as percent change with converged UCERF3 in the numerator; areas where hazard decreases with converged UCERF3 are shown in blue. The maximum hazard decrease is 23%, but the hazard is within 10% at 99% of sites. The state of California is outlined in black, and UCERF3 faults are plotted as gray lines. The color version of this figure is available only in the electronic edition.]()
![Number of earthquakes expected to occur at UCERF3 paleoseismic sites over a 100 yr time period for (a) UCERF3‐TI (time‐independent model), (b) UCERF3‐TD (time‐dependent model), and (c) UCERF3‐ETAS. The implied chance of detecting zero events in a generic 100 yr period is 0.5%, 1.7%, and 3.5%, respectively, for these models. Figure from Page et al. (2019).]()
![3D perspective view of the types of earthquake sources utilized in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Each fault‐based source/rupture is represented by a collection of two or more contiguous fault subsections, the latter of which are depicted as black‐outlined parallelograms. The 0.1°‐by‐0.1° grid draped over the entire region defines the gridded seismicity cells described in the text. The colors indicate the average likelihood that each cell or fault subsection will participate in an M≥6.7 earthquake in a 30‐year period following 2014. This study utilizes a branch‐averaged UCERF3 long‐term time‐dependent (UCERF3‐TD) model, in which only Fault Model 3.1 is included, only the UCERF3 smoothed seismicity branch is used because it performs better for short‐term forecasts, and only the mid‐aperiodicity branch is used for the elastic‐rebound time dependence; all other branches contribute to this average model according to their respective weights (see the UCERF3‐TD report, including Fig. 3 therein, for more details on the various branch options). Although the UCERF3 time‐independent (UCERF3‐TI) and UCERF3‐TD models have an option for removing aftershocks according to the Gardner and Knopoff (1974) declustering algorithm, this option has not been applied here, meaning that all earthquakes are included. The minimum magnitude considered by the forecast is also lowered from M 5 to 2.5.]()
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![(a) Average M≥6.7 30 yr subsection probabilities for all UCERF3 time‐dependent model branches. (b) UCERF3 subsection probability gains (average time‐dependent result divided by average of all time‐independent/Poisson model branches). (c) Ratio of UCERF3 to UCERF2 probabilities for faults used in both studies, where UCERF3 subsection probabilities have been aggregated onto parent sections before taking the ratio. (d) Thirty‐year subsection probabilities computed using average UCERF3 recurrence interval (including all supraseismogenic ruptures), time since last event (where known), and an assumed aperiodicity of 0.3; the historic open interval is ignored (zero) in this plot. Only fault traces are shown in these plots.]()
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Journal Article
Trimming the UCERF3-TD logic tree: Model order reduction for an earthquake rupture forecast considering loss exceedance Available to Purchase
Journal: Earthquake Spectra
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Published: 01 February 2025
Earthquake Spectra (2025) 41 (1): 636–653.
... loss exceedance tree trimming epistemic uncertainty One begins by selecting an asset portfolio and evaluating the portfolio loss exceedance curve for one logic-tree leaf. That is, fix every branch to one value and evaluate loss in each rupture in the UCERF3-TD model. Calculate the loss...
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Journal Article
Impacts on catastrophe risk assessments from multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures in the UCERF3 model Available to Purchase
Journal: Earthquake Spectra
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Published: 01 February 2022
Earthquake Spectra (2022) 38 (1): 128–151.
...Yajie Lee, M.EERI; Zhenghui Hui, M.EERI; Siamak Daneshvaran; Farhad Sedaghati; William P Graf, M.EERI The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) relaxes fault segmentation, allowing multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures through fault-to-fault “jumps,” with lengths up...
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Journal Article
Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS) Open Access
Journal: The Seismic Record
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 09 September 2021
The Seismic Record (2021) 1 (2): 117–125.
...Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Morgan T. Page; William H. Savran; Nicholas van der Elst Abstract We describe recent improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS), which continues to represent our most advanced and complete earthquake forecast...
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Journal Article
Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3‐ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 21 July 2020
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2020) 110 (4): 1799–1817.
... sequences (UCERF3‐ETAS) in a pseudoprospective sense. For comparison, we include a version of the model without explicit faults more closely mimicking traditional ETAS models (UCERF3‐NoFaults). We evaluate the forecasts with new metrics developed within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake...
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Journal Article
Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3‐ETAS Model Available to Purchase
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 04 March 2020
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (3): 1567–1578.
...Kevin R. Milner; Edward H. Field; William H. Savran; Morgan T. Page; Thomas H. Jordan Abstract The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high‐performance computing cluster within 33...
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Journal Article
Analysis of Mean Seismic Ground Motion and Its Uncertainty Based on the UCERF3 Geologic Slip‐Rate Uncertainty for California Available to Purchase
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 25 April 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1410–1419.
...Yuehua Zeng ABSTRACT The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model ( Field et al. , 2014 ) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered...
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Journal Article
Turing‐Style Tests for UCERF3 Synthetic Catalogs Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 13 February 2018
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (2): 729–741.
...Morgan T. Page; Nicholas J. van der Elst Abstract Epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) catalogs generated from the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) model are unique in that they are the first to combine a complex, fault‐based long‐term forecast with short‐term...
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Includes: Supplemental Content
Journal Article
A Prototype Operational Earthquake Loss Model for California Based on UCERF3-ETAS – A First Look at Valuation Available to Purchase
Journal: Earthquake Spectra
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Published: 01 November 2017
Earthquake Spectra (2017) 33 (4): 1279–1299.
...Edward Field, M. EERI; Keith Porter, M. EERI; Kevin Milner, M. EERI We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents...
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Journal Article
A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) Available to Purchase
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 12 July 2017
Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (5): 1259–1267.
... into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from...
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Journal Article
A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 28 February 2017
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2017) 107 (3): 1049–1081.
... for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component...
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Includes: Supplemental Content
Journal Article
Disaggregating UCERF3 for Site-Specific Applications Available to Purchase
Journal: Earthquake Spectra
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Published: 01 November 2016
Earthquake Spectra (2016) 32 (4): 2009–2026.
...Glenn Biasi, M. EERI; John G. Anderson, M. EERI We present methods to simplify the use of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 (UCERF3) in site-specific seismic hazard analyses. UCERF3 defines the “state-of-practice” for hazard assessments in California and underlies the current...
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Journal Article
Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 10 March 2015
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2015) 105 (2A): 511–543.
... Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time‐dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time‐independent model published previously, renewal models are utilized...
FIGURES
Journal Article
The UCERF3 Grand Inversion: Solving for the Long‐Term Rate of Ruptures in a Fault System Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 03 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1181–1204.
...Morgan T. Page; Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Peter M. Powers Abstract We present implementation details, testing, and results from a new inversion‐based methodology, known colloquially as the “grand inversion,” developed for the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). We...
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Journal Article
Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time‐Independent Model Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 01 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1122–1180.
.... Weldon, II; Yuehua Zeng Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP14) present the time‐independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged...
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Image
Comparison of peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard with a 2% probability o... Available to Purchase
in A Comprehensive Fault‐System Inversion Approach: Methods and Application to NSHM23
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 22 December 2023
Figure 3. Comparison of peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr between a better converged recalculation of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) and the published UCERF3 ( Field et al. , 2014 ). Shown are hazard ratios
Image
Number of earthquakes expected to occur at UCERF3 paleoseismic sites over a... Open Access
in Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS)
> The Seismic Record
Published: 09 September 2021
Figure 2. Number of earthquakes expected to occur at UCERF3 paleoseismic sites over a 100 yr time period for (a) UCERF3‐TI (time‐independent model), (b) UCERF3‐TD (time‐dependent model), and (c) UCERF3‐ETAS. The implied chance of detecting zero events in a generic 100 yr period is 0.5%, 1.7
Image
3D perspective view of the types of earthquake sources utilized in the Thir... Available to Purchase
in A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 28 February 2017
Figure 1. 3D perspective view of the types of earthquake sources utilized in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Each fault‐based source/rupture is represented by a collection of two or more contiguous fault subsections, the latter of which are depicted as black
Journal Article
Enumerating Plausible Multifault Ruptures in Complex Fault Systems with Physical Constraints Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 25 May 2022
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2022) 112 (4): 1806–1824.
...Kevin R. Milner; Bruce E. Shaw; Edward H. Field ABSTRACT We propose a new model for determining the set of plausible multifault ruptures in an interconnected fault system. We improve upon the rules used in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) to increase connectivity...
FIGURES
Image
(a) Average M ≥6.7 30 yr subsection probabilities for all UCERF3 time‐depe... Available to Purchase
in Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 10 March 2015
Figure 5. (a) Average M ≥6.7 30 yr subsection probabilities for all UCERF3 time‐dependent model branches. (b) UCERF3 subsection probability gains (average time‐dependent result divided by average of all time‐independent/Poisson model branches). (c) Ratio of UCERF3 to UCERF2 probabilities
Journal Article
A Comprehensive Fault‐System Inversion Approach: Methods and Application to NSHM23 Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 22 December 2023
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2024) 114 (1): 486–522.
...Figure 3. Comparison of peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr between a better converged recalculation of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) and the published UCERF3 ( Field et al. , 2014 ). Shown are hazard ratios...
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