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all geography including DSDP/ODP Sites and Legs
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Africa
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East Africa
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Afar Depression (1)
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Eritrea (1)
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East African Rift (1)
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Nubian Shield (2)
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Alpine Fault (3)
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Asia
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Far East
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China
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Altyn Tagh Fault (1)
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Inner Mongolia China (1)
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Kunlun Fault (1)
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Qinghai China (1)
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Indonesia
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Sumatra (1)
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Japan
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Honshu
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Tohoku (1)
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Philippine Islands (1)
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Taiwan (4)
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Indian Peninsula
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Dead Sea Rift (1)
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Turkey
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Tibetan Plateau (2)
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Australasia
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Cascadia subduction zone (4)
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Hawaii County Hawaii
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Western Europe
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Hikurangi Trough (1)
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West Pacific
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Northwest Pacific
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Japan Trench (1)
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Peninsular Ranges (1)
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United States
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Alaska (1)
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Arkansas (1)
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California
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Alameda County California
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Calaveras Fault (2)
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Coachella Valley (3)
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Elsinore Fault (2)
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Imperial County California
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Brawley Fault (1)
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El Centro California (1)
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Imperial Fault (2)
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Kern County California (5)
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Lake County California (1)
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Monterey Bay (1)
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Salton Sea (3)
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San Bernardino County California
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San Francisco Bay (1)
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Colorado (1)
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Hawaii County Hawaii
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Idaho
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Custer County Idaho
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Lost River Fault (2)
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Kansas (2)
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Texas (2)
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U. S. Rocky Mountains
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Salt Lake County Utah
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Salt Lake City Utah (3)
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Walker Lane (2)
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King County Washington
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elements, isotopes
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carbon
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C-14 (11)
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-
isotopes
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radioactive isotopes
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Al-26 (1)
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Be-10 (3)
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C-14 (11)
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-
stable isotopes
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He-3 (1)
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-
-
metals
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alkaline earth metals
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beryllium
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Be-10 (3)
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-
-
aluminum
-
Al-26 (1)
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-
-
noble gases
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helium
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He-3 (1)
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-
-
-
geochronology methods
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Ar/Ar (2)
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exposure age (1)
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infrared stimulated luminescence (4)
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optically stimulated luminescence (6)
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paleomagnetism (1)
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thermochronology (1)
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tree rings (1)
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geologic age
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Cenozoic
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Quaternary
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Holocene
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upper Holocene (8)
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Pleistocene
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upper Pleistocene (8)
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-
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Saugus Formation (1)
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Tertiary
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Neogene
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Miocene
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upper Miocene (1)
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Pliocene
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lower Pliocene (1)
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upper Pliocene (1)
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-
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upper Cenozoic (2)
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Mesozoic
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Franciscan Complex (1)
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-
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minerals
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silicates
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framework silicates
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feldspar group (1)
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silica minerals
-
quartz (1)
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-
-
-
-
Primary terms
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absolute age (12)
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Africa
-
East Africa
-
Afar Depression (1)
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Eritrea (1)
-
-
East African Rift (1)
-
Nubian Shield (2)
-
-
Asia
-
Far East
-
China
-
Altyn Tagh Fault (1)
-
Inner Mongolia China (1)
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Kunlun Fault (1)
-
Qinghai China (1)
-
-
Indonesia
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Sumatra (1)
-
-
Japan
-
Honshu
-
Tohoku (1)
-
-
-
Philippine Islands (1)
-
Taiwan (4)
-
-
Indian Peninsula
-
Nepal (1)
-
-
Middle East
-
Dead Sea Rift (1)
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Iran (2)
-
Turkey
-
Anatolia (1)
-
East Anatolian Fault (1)
-
North Anatolian Fault (2)
-
-
-
Tibetan Plateau (2)
-
-
Australasia
-
New Zealand
-
Canterbury New Zealand
-
Christchurch New Zealand (1)
-
-
Marlborough fault system (1)
-
Marlborough New Zealand
-
Kaikoura (6)
-
-
Westland New Zealand (2)
-
-
-
Canada (2)
-
carbon
-
C-14 (11)
-
-
Caribbean region
-
West Indies
-
Antilles
-
Greater Antilles
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Puerto Rico (1)
-
-
-
-
-
catalogs (9)
-
Cenozoic
-
Quaternary
-
Holocene
-
upper Holocene (8)
-
-
Pleistocene
-
upper Pleistocene (8)
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-
-
Saugus Formation (1)
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Tertiary
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Neogene
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Miocene
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upper Miocene (1)
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Pliocene
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lower Pliocene (1)
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upper Pliocene (1)
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upper Cenozoic (2)
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construction materials (1)
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continental shelf (1)
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crust (10)
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data processing (23)
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deformation (20)
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earthquakes (240)
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East Pacific Ocean Islands
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Hawaii
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Hawaii County Hawaii
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Hawaii Island
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Kilauea (1)
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-
-
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engineering geology (2)
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Europe
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Alps
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Western Alps (1)
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Central Europe
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Germany (1)
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Southern Europe
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Italy
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France (2)
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explosions (1)
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faults (161)
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foundations (2)
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geodesy (13)
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geophysical methods (14)
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government agencies
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Indian Ocean
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isotopes
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radioactive isotopes
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stable isotopes
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mantle (1)
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Mesozoic
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metals
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alkaline earth metals
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beryllium
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aluminum
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Mexico
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noble gases
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helium
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North America
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Basin and Range Province (3)
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Rocky Mountains
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U. S. Rocky Mountains
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Wasatch Range (1)
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Oceania
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Polynesia
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Hawaii
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Hawaii County Hawaii
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oil and gas fields (1)
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Pacific Ocean
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Kern County California (5)
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San Bernardino County California
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San Francisco County California
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San Gabriel Fault (1)
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San Luis Obispo County California
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Santa Barbara Channel (2)
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Santa Barbara County California (1)
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Idaho
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Kansas (2)
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Utah
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1-20 OF 509 RESULTS FOR
UCERF3
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Journal Article
Impacts on catastrophe risk assessments from multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures in the UCERF3 model
Yajie Lee, M.EERI, Zhenghui Hui, M.EERI, Siamak Daneshvaran, Farhad Sedaghati, William P Graf, M.EERI
Journal: Earthquake Spectra
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Published: 01 February 2022
Earthquake Spectra (2022) 38 (1): 128–151.
...Yajie Lee, M.EERI; Zhenghui Hui, M.EERI; Siamak Daneshvaran; Farhad Sedaghati; William P Graf, M.EERI The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) relaxes fault segmentation, allowing multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures through fault-to-fault “jumps,” with lengths up...
Journal Article
Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS)
Journal: The Seismic Record
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 09 September 2021
The Seismic Record (2021) 1 (2): 117–125.
...Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Morgan T. Page; William H. Savran; Nicholas van der Elst Abstract We describe recent improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS), which continues to represent our most advanced and complete earthquake forecast...
Journal Article
Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3‐ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence
William H. Savran, Maximilian J. Werner, Warner Marzocchi, David A. Rhoades, David D. Jackson, Kevin Milner, Edward Field, Andrew Michael
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 21 July 2020
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2020) 110 (4): 1799–1817.
... sequences (UCERF3‐ETAS) in a pseudoprospective sense. For comparison, we include a version of the model without explicit faults more closely mimicking traditional ETAS models (UCERF3‐NoFaults). We evaluate the forecasts with new metrics developed within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake...
Journal Article
Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3‐ETAS Model
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 04 March 2020
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (3): 1567–1578.
...Kevin R. Milner; Edward H. Field; William H. Savran; Morgan T. Page; Thomas H. Jordan Abstract The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high‐performance computing cluster within 33...
Journal Article
Analysis of Mean Seismic Ground Motion and Its Uncertainty Based on the UCERF3 Geologic Slip‐Rate Uncertainty for California
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 25 April 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1410–1419.
...Yuehua Zeng ABSTRACT The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model ( Field et al. , 2014 ) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered...
Journal Article
Turing‐Style Tests for UCERF3 Synthetic Catalogs
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 13 February 2018
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (2): 729–741.
...Morgan T. Page; Nicholas J. van der Elst Abstract Epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) catalogs generated from the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) model are unique in that they are the first to combine a complex, fault‐based long‐term forecast with short‐term...
Includes: Supplemental Content
Journal Article
A Prototype Operational Earthquake Loss Model for California Based on UCERF3-ETAS – A First Look at Valuation
Journal: Earthquake Spectra
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Published: 01 November 2017
Earthquake Spectra (2017) 33 (4): 1279–1299.
...Edward Field, M. EERI; Keith Porter, M. EERI; Kevin Milner, M. EERI We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents...
Journal Article
A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Edward H. Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn P. Biasi, Tom Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, II, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Karen R. Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximilian J. Werner, Wayne R. Thatcher
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 12 July 2017
Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (5): 1259–1267.
... into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from...
Journal Article
A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast
Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Thomas H. Jordan, Andrew J. Michael, Bruce E. Shaw, Maximilian J. Werner
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 28 February 2017
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2017) 107 (3): 1049–1081.
... for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component...
Includes: Supplemental Content
Journal Article
Disaggregating UCERF3 for Site-Specific Applications
Journal: Earthquake Spectra
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Published: 01 November 2016
Earthquake Spectra (2016) 32 (4): 2009–2026.
...Glenn Biasi, M. EERI; John G. Anderson, M. EERI We present methods to simplify the use of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 (UCERF3) in site-specific seismic hazard analyses. UCERF3 defines the “state-of-practice” for hazard assessments in California and underlies the current...
Journal Article
Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Edward H. Field, Glenn P. Biasi, Peter Bird, Timothy E. Dawson, Karen R. Felzer, David D. Jackson, Kaj M. Johnson, Thomas H. Jordan, Christopher Madden, Andrew J. Michael, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, Tom Parsons, Peter M. Powers, Bruce E. Shaw, Wayne R. Thatcher, Ray J. Weldon, II, Yuehua Zeng
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 10 March 2015
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2015) 105 (2A): 511–543.
... Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time‐dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time‐independent model published previously, renewal models are utilized...
Journal Article
The UCERF3 Grand Inversion: Solving for the Long‐Term Rate of Ruptures in a Fault System
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 03 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1181–1204.
...Morgan T. Page; Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Peter M. Powers Abstract We present implementation details, testing, and results from a new inversion‐based methodology, known colloquially as the “grand inversion,” developed for the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). We...
Journal Article
Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time‐Independent Model
Edward H. Field, Ramon J. Arrowsmith, Glenn P. Biasi, Peter Bird, Timothy E. Dawson, Karen R. Felzer, David D. Jackson, Kaj M. Johnson, Thomas H. Jordan, Christopher Madden, Andrew J. Michael, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, Tom Parsons, Peter M. Powers, Bruce E. Shaw, Wayne R. Thatcher, Ray J. Weldon, II, Yuehua Zeng
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 01 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1122–1180.
.... Weldon, II; Yuehua Zeng Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP14) present the time‐independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged...
Image
Number of earthquakes expected to occur at UCERF3 paleoseismic sites over a...
in Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS)
> The Seismic Record
Published: 09 September 2021
Figure 2. Number of earthquakes expected to occur at UCERF3 paleoseismic sites over a 100 yr time period for (a) UCERF3‐TI (time‐independent model), (b) UCERF3‐TD (time‐dependent model), and (c) UCERF3‐ETAS. The implied chance of detecting zero events in a generic 100 yr period is 0.5%, 1.7
Journal Article
Enumerating Plausible Multifault Ruptures in Complex Fault Systems with Physical Constraints
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 25 May 2022
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2022) 112 (4): 1806–1824.
...Kevin R. Milner; Bruce E. Shaw; Edward H. Field ABSTRACT We propose a new model for determining the set of plausible multifault ruptures in an interconnected fault system. We improve upon the rules used in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) to increase connectivity...
Image
3D perspective view of the types of earthquake sources utilized in the Thir...
in A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 28 February 2017
Figure 1. 3D perspective view of the types of earthquake sources utilized in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Each fault‐based source/rupture is represented by a collection of two or more contiguous fault subsections, the latter of which are depicted as black
Journal Article
Mechanical Models of Fault‐Slip Rates in the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, California
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 30 September 2022
Seismological Research Letters (2022) 93 (6): 3135–3150.
... Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF3) as well as individual geologic point‐based estimates of long‐term slip. About 46/68 (68%) model‐predicted average fault‐slip rates are within the UCERF3 slip‐rate ranges with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.03 mm/yr to the nearest (upper or lower) UCERF3 limit...
Includes: Supplemental Content
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(a) Average M ≥6.7 30 yr subsection probabilities for all UCERF3 time‐depe...
in Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 10 March 2015
Figure 5. (a) Average M ≥6.7 30 yr subsection probabilities for all UCERF3 time‐dependent model branches. (b) UCERF3 subsection probability gains (average time‐dependent result divided by average of all time‐independent/Poisson model branches). (c) Ratio of UCERF3 to UCERF2 probabilities
Image
The spatial distribution of moment rates implied by the UCERF2 smoothed sei...
in Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time‐Independent Model
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 01 June 2014
Figure 10. The spatial distribution of moment rates implied by the UCERF2 smoothed seismicity model (Appendix J, Petersen, Mueller, et al. , 2007 ) and the new UCERF3 smoothed seismicity model (Appendix M, Felzer, 2013c ), compared to the average UCERF3 deformation model (described in Fig. 9
Journal Article
Mechanical Models Suggest Fault Linkage through the Imperial Valley, California, U.S.A.
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 11 June 2019
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2019) 109 (4): 1217–1234.
... Model version 5.0 (v.5.0). We evaluate model results against average fault‐slip rates from the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Model v.3 (UCERF3) and geologic slip‐rate estimates from specific locations. The model results support continuous linkage from the SAF through the Brawley seismic zone...
Includes: Supplemental Content
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