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NARROW
Format
Article Type
Journal
Publisher
Section
GeoRef Subject
-
all geography including DSDP/ODP Sites and Legs
-
Africa
-
East Africa
-
Afar Depression (1)
-
Eritrea (1)
-
-
East African Rift (1)
-
Nubian Shield (2)
-
-
Alpine Fault (4)
-
Antelope Valley (1)
-
Asia
-
Arabian Peninsula (1)
-
Far East
-
China
-
Altyn Tagh Fault (1)
-
Inner Mongolia China (1)
-
Kunlun Fault (1)
-
Qinghai China (1)
-
Sichuan China
-
Wenchuan China (1)
-
-
Xianshuihe fault zone (1)
-
Yunnan China (1)
-
-
Indonesia
-
Sumatra (1)
-
-
Japan
-
Honshu
-
Tohoku (1)
-
-
-
Korea
-
South Korea (1)
-
-
Philippine Islands (1)
-
Taiwan
-
Taitung Taiwan (1)
-
-
-
Indian Peninsula
-
Nepal (1)
-
Pakistan (1)
-
-
Middle East
-
Dead Sea Rift (1)
-
Iran (3)
-
Iraq (1)
-
Lebanon (1)
-
Turkey
-
Anatolia (3)
-
East Anatolian Fault (2)
-
Elbistan Turkey (1)
-
North Anatolian Fault (3)
-
-
Zagros (1)
-
-
Tibetan Plateau (3)
-
-
Australasia
-
New Zealand
-
Canterbury New Zealand
-
Christchurch New Zealand (1)
-
-
Hawke's Bay New Zealand (2)
-
Marlborough fault system (3)
-
Marlborough New Zealand
-
Kaikoura (6)
-
-
Southland New Zealand
-
Fiordland (1)
-
-
Taupo (1)
-
Taupo volcanic zone (1)
-
Wairarapa (1)
-
Wellington New Zealand (1)
-
Westland New Zealand (2)
-
-
-
Canada (2)
-
Caribbean region
-
West Indies
-
Antilles
-
Greater Antilles
-
Puerto Rico (3)
-
-
Lesser Antilles
-
Virgin Islands
-
U. S. Virgin Islands (1)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Cascadia subduction zone (5)
-
Central America
-
Costa Rica (1)
-
El Salvador (1)
-
Guatemala (1)
-
Honduras (2)
-
Nicaragua (1)
-
Panama (1)
-
-
Central Valley (1)
-
Coast Ranges (1)
-
Commonwealth of Independent States
-
Armenia (1)
-
Caucasus (2)
-
-
East Pacific Ocean Islands
-
Hawaii
-
Hawaii County Hawaii
-
Hawaii Island
-
Kilauea (1)
-
-
-
-
-
Europe
-
Adriatic region (1)
-
Alps
-
Western Alps (1)
-
-
Armenia (1)
-
Caucasus (2)
-
Central Europe
-
Germany (1)
-
Switzerland (1)
-
-
Southern Europe
-
Croatia (1)
-
Italy
-
Apennines
-
Central Apennines (1)
-
-
Calabria Italy (1)
-
Latium Italy (1)
-
Sicily Italy
-
Mount Etna (1)
-
-
-
-
Western Europe
-
France (2)
-
-
-
Greenville Fault (1)
-
Hikurangi Margin (1)
-
Hope Fault (4)
-
Imperial Valley (2)
-
Indian Ocean
-
Arabian Sea
-
Gulf of Aden (1)
-
Persian Gulf (2)
-
-
Red Sea (1)
-
-
Mexico
-
Baja California (2)
-
-
Mill Creek (1)
-
Mohawk Valley (1)
-
North America
-
Basin and Range Province (4)
-
Cerro Prieto Fault (1)
-
Gulf Coastal Plain (2)
-
Rocky Mountains
-
U. S. Rocky Mountains
-
Wasatch Range (1)
-
-
-
-
North Island (6)
-
Oceania
-
Polynesia
-
Hawaii
-
Hawaii County Hawaii
-
Hawaii Island
-
Kilauea (1)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Pacific Ocean
-
East Pacific
-
Northeast Pacific
-
Gulf of Alaska (1)
-
-
-
North Pacific
-
Aleutian Trench (1)
-
Northeast Pacific
-
Gulf of Alaska (1)
-
-
Northwest Pacific
-
Japan Trench (1)
-
Nankai Trough (2)
-
-
-
South Pacific
-
Kermadec Trench (1)
-
Southwest Pacific
-
Hikurangi Trough (2)
-
-
-
West Pacific
-
Northwest Pacific
-
Japan Trench (1)
-
Nankai Trough (2)
-
-
Southwest Pacific
-
Hikurangi Trough (2)
-
-
-
-
Peninsular Ranges (1)
-
Pine Mountain Fault (1)
-
Red Mountain (1)
-
Sacramento River (1)
-
San Andreas Fault (55)
-
San Bernardino Mountains (1)
-
San Jacinto Fault (12)
-
San Joaquin River (1)
-
Santa Clara Valley (1)
-
Santa Cruz Mountains (2)
-
Sierra Nevada (1)
-
South America
-
Chile (1)
-
Peru
-
Lima Peru (1)
-
-
Venezuela
-
Bocono Fault (1)
-
-
-
South Island (18)
-
United States
-
Alaska
-
Aleutian Islands (1)
-
Anchorage Alaska (1)
-
Juneau Alaska (1)
-
Nome Alaska (1)
-
Prudhoe Bay (1)
-
-
Arkansas (1)
-
Atlantic Coastal Plain (1)
-
California
-
Alameda County California
-
Berkeley California (1)
-
-
Calaveras Fault (2)
-
Central California (1)
-
Coachella Valley (3)
-
Elsinore Fault (3)
-
Garlock Fault (7)
-
Hayward Fault (10)
-
Humboldt County California
-
Eureka California (1)
-
-
Imperial County California
-
Brawley Fault (2)
-
El Centro California (1)
-
Imperial Fault (2)
-
-
Kern County California (5)
-
Lake County California (1)
-
Los Angeles Basin (4)
-
Los Angeles County California
-
Long Beach California (2)
-
Los Angeles California (10)
-
Palmdale California (1)
-
Palos Verdes Peninsula (1)
-
-
Marin County California (1)
-
Mono County California
-
Long Valley Caldera (1)
-
-
Monterey Bay (2)
-
Napa County California (1)
-
Newport-Inglewood Fault (3)
-
Northern California (3)
-
Orange County California (1)
-
Riverside County California (4)
-
Sacramento County California
-
Sacramento California (2)
-
-
Salton Sea (5)
-
Salton Trough (1)
-
San Benito County California
-
Pinnacles National Monument (1)
-
-
San Bernardino County California
-
Cajon Pass (1)
-
Landers California (1)
-
San Gorgonio Pass (3)
-
Trona California (1)
-
-
San Diego County California
-
San Diego California (1)
-
-
San Francisco Bay (2)
-
San Francisco Bay region (10)
-
San Francisco County California
-
San Francisco California (5)
-
-
San Gabriel Fault (1)
-
San Gabriel Mountains (1)
-
San Gregorio Fault (1)
-
San Luis Obispo County California
-
Carrizo Plain (1)
-
San Luis Obispo California (1)
-
-
Santa Barbara Channel (2)
-
Santa Barbara County California (1)
-
Santa Clara County California
-
San Jose California (1)
-
-
Sonoma County California (1)
-
Southern California (31)
-
Transverse Ranges (5)
-
Ventura Basin (3)
-
-
Colorado (1)
-
Eastern California shear zone (4)
-
Eastern U.S. (7)
-
Hawaii
-
Hawaii County Hawaii
-
Hawaii Island
-
Kilauea (1)
-
-
-
-
Idaho
-
Custer County Idaho
-
Borah Peak (1)
-
-
Lost River Fault (2)
-
Lost River Range
-
Borah Peak (1)
-
-
-
Kansas (2)
-
Midwest (9)
-
Mojave Desert (5)
-
Nevada
-
Carson City County Nevada (1)
-
Mineral County Nevada (1)
-
Washoe County Nevada
-
Reno Nevada (2)
-
-
-
New Madrid region (3)
-
Oklahoma (5)
-
Oregon
-
Multnomah County Oregon
-
Portland Oregon (1)
-
-
-
Southwestern U.S. (1)
-
Texas (2)
-
U. S. Rocky Mountains
-
Wasatch Range (1)
-
-
Utah
-
Salt Lake County Utah
-
Salt Lake City Utah (4)
-
-
Utah County Utah
-
Provo Utah (1)
-
-
-
Walker Lane (2)
-
Wasatch fault zone (3)
-
Wasatch Front (2)
-
Washington
-
King County Washington
-
Seattle Washington (3)
-
-
Puget Lowland (1)
-
-
Western U.S. (21)
-
Wyoming (2)
-
-
-
commodities
-
construction materials (1)
-
oil and gas fields (1)
-
petroleum
-
natural gas (1)
-
-
-
elements, isotopes
-
carbon
-
C-14 (11)
-
-
isotopes
-
radioactive isotopes
-
Al-26 (1)
-
Be-10 (3)
-
C-14 (11)
-
-
stable isotopes
-
He-3 (1)
-
-
-
metals
-
alkaline earth metals
-
beryllium
-
Be-10 (3)
-
-
-
aluminum
-
Al-26 (1)
-
-
-
noble gases
-
helium
-
He-3 (1)
-
-
-
-
geochronology methods
-
Ar/Ar (2)
-
exposure age (1)
-
infrared stimulated luminescence (5)
-
optically stimulated luminescence (7)
-
paleomagnetism (1)
-
thermochronology (1)
-
tree rings (1)
-
-
geologic age
-
Cenozoic
-
Quaternary
-
Holocene
-
upper Holocene (8)
-
-
Pleistocene
-
upper Pleistocene (9)
-
-
-
Saugus Formation (1)
-
Tertiary
-
Neogene
-
Miocene
-
upper Miocene (1)
-
-
Pliocene
-
lower Pliocene (1)
-
upper Pliocene (1)
-
-
-
Paleogene
-
Eocene
-
Rose Canyon Formation (1)
-
-
-
-
upper Cenozoic (2)
-
-
Mesozoic
-
Franciscan Complex (2)
-
-
-
igneous rocks
-
ophiolite (1)
-
-
metamorphic rocks
-
metamorphic rocks
-
metaigneous rocks
-
serpentinite (1)
-
-
metasomatic rocks
-
serpentinite (1)
-
-
-
ophiolite (1)
-
-
minerals
-
silicates
-
framework silicates
-
feldspar group (1)
-
silica minerals
-
quartz (1)
-
-
-
-
-
Primary terms
-
absolute age (12)
-
Africa
-
East Africa
-
Afar Depression (1)
-
Eritrea (1)
-
-
East African Rift (1)
-
Nubian Shield (2)
-
-
Asia
-
Arabian Peninsula (1)
-
Far East
-
China
-
Altyn Tagh Fault (1)
-
Inner Mongolia China (1)
-
Kunlun Fault (1)
-
Qinghai China (1)
-
Sichuan China
-
Wenchuan China (1)
-
-
Xianshuihe fault zone (1)
-
Yunnan China (1)
-
-
Indonesia
-
Sumatra (1)
-
-
Japan
-
Honshu
-
Tohoku (1)
-
-
-
Korea
-
South Korea (1)
-
-
Philippine Islands (1)
-
Taiwan
-
Taitung Taiwan (1)
-
-
-
Indian Peninsula
-
Nepal (1)
-
Pakistan (1)
-
-
Middle East
-
Dead Sea Rift (1)
-
Iran (3)
-
Iraq (1)
-
Lebanon (1)
-
Turkey
-
Anatolia (3)
-
East Anatolian Fault (2)
-
Elbistan Turkey (1)
-
North Anatolian Fault (3)
-
-
Zagros (1)
-
-
Tibetan Plateau (3)
-
-
Australasia
-
New Zealand
-
Canterbury New Zealand
-
Christchurch New Zealand (1)
-
-
Hawke's Bay New Zealand (2)
-
Marlborough fault system (3)
-
Marlborough New Zealand
-
Kaikoura (6)
-
-
Southland New Zealand
-
Fiordland (1)
-
-
Taupo (1)
-
Taupo volcanic zone (1)
-
Wairarapa (1)
-
Wellington New Zealand (1)
-
Westland New Zealand (2)
-
-
-
Canada (2)
-
carbon
-
C-14 (11)
-
-
Caribbean region
-
West Indies
-
Antilles
-
Greater Antilles
-
Puerto Rico (3)
-
-
Lesser Antilles
-
Virgin Islands
-
U. S. Virgin Islands (1)
-
-
-
-
-
-
catalogs (24)
-
Cenozoic
-
Quaternary
-
Holocene
-
upper Holocene (8)
-
-
Pleistocene
-
upper Pleistocene (9)
-
-
-
Saugus Formation (1)
-
Tertiary
-
Neogene
-
Miocene
-
upper Miocene (1)
-
-
Pliocene
-
lower Pliocene (1)
-
upper Pliocene (1)
-
-
-
Paleogene
-
Eocene
-
Rose Canyon Formation (1)
-
-
-
-
upper Cenozoic (2)
-
-
Central America
-
Costa Rica (1)
-
El Salvador (1)
-
Guatemala (1)
-
Honduras (2)
-
Nicaragua (1)
-
Panama (1)
-
-
construction materials (1)
-
continental shelf (1)
-
crust (14)
-
data processing (33)
-
deformation (32)
-
earthquakes (325)
-
East Pacific Ocean Islands
-
Hawaii
-
Hawaii County Hawaii
-
Hawaii Island
-
Kilauea (1)
-
-
-
-
-
engineering geology (2)
-
Europe
-
Adriatic region (1)
-
Alps
-
Western Alps (1)
-
-
Armenia (1)
-
Caucasus (2)
-
Central Europe
-
Germany (1)
-
Switzerland (1)
-
-
Southern Europe
-
Croatia (1)
-
Italy
-
Apennines
-
Central Apennines (1)
-
-
Calabria Italy (1)
-
Latium Italy (1)
-
Sicily Italy
-
Mount Etna (1)
-
-
-
-
Western Europe
-
France (2)
-
-
-
explosions (2)
-
faults (205)
-
folds (4)
-
foundations (2)
-
geochronology (5)
-
geodesy (16)
-
geomorphology (6)
-
geophysical methods (18)
-
government agencies
-
survey organizations (6)
-
-
Indian Ocean
-
Arabian Sea
-
Gulf of Aden (1)
-
Persian Gulf (2)
-
-
Red Sea (1)
-
-
isotopes
-
radioactive isotopes
-
Al-26 (1)
-
Be-10 (3)
-
C-14 (11)
-
-
stable isotopes
-
He-3 (1)
-
-
-
mantle (1)
-
marine installations (1)
-
Mesozoic
-
Franciscan Complex (2)
-
-
metals
-
alkaline earth metals
-
beryllium
-
Be-10 (3)
-
-
-
aluminum
-
Al-26 (1)
-
-
-
metamorphic rocks
-
metaigneous rocks
-
serpentinite (1)
-
-
metasomatic rocks
-
serpentinite (1)
-
-
-
Mexico
-
Baja California (2)
-
-
Mohorovicic discontinuity (1)
-
noble gases
-
helium
-
He-3 (1)
-
-
-
North America
-
Basin and Range Province (4)
-
Cerro Prieto Fault (1)
-
Gulf Coastal Plain (2)
-
Rocky Mountains
-
U. S. Rocky Mountains
-
Wasatch Range (1)
-
-
-
-
ocean floors (1)
-
Oceania
-
Polynesia
-
Hawaii
-
Hawaii County Hawaii
-
Hawaii Island
-
Kilauea (1)
-
-
-
-
-
-
oil and gas fields (1)
-
Pacific Ocean
-
East Pacific
-
Northeast Pacific
-
Gulf of Alaska (1)
-
-
-
North Pacific
-
Aleutian Trench (1)
-
Northeast Pacific
-
Gulf of Alaska (1)
-
-
Northwest Pacific
-
Japan Trench (1)
-
Nankai Trough (2)
-
-
-
South Pacific
-
Kermadec Trench (1)
-
Southwest Pacific
-
Hikurangi Trough (2)
-
-
-
West Pacific
-
Northwest Pacific
-
Japan Trench (1)
-
Nankai Trough (2)
-
-
Southwest Pacific
-
Hikurangi Trough (2)
-
-
-
-
paleomagnetism (1)
-
petroleum
-
natural gas (1)
-
-
plate tectonics (37)
-
remote sensing (13)
-
rock mechanics (1)
-
sea-level changes (4)
-
sedimentary rocks
-
chemically precipitated rocks
-
tufa (1)
-
-
clastic rocks
-
sandstone (1)
-
shale (1)
-
-
-
sediments
-
clastic sediments
-
alluvium (1)
-
boulders (1)
-
-
marine sediments (1)
-
-
seismology (1)
-
soil mechanics (2)
-
soils (1)
-
South America
-
Chile (1)
-
Peru
-
Lima Peru (1)
-
-
Venezuela
-
Bocono Fault (1)
-
-
-
structural analysis (1)
-
tectonics
-
neotectonics (7)
-
-
United States
-
Alaska
-
Aleutian Islands (1)
-
Anchorage Alaska (1)
-
Juneau Alaska (1)
-
Nome Alaska (1)
-
Prudhoe Bay (1)
-
-
Arkansas (1)
-
Atlantic Coastal Plain (1)
-
California
-
Alameda County California
-
Berkeley California (1)
-
-
Calaveras Fault (2)
-
Central California (1)
-
Coachella Valley (3)
-
Elsinore Fault (3)
-
Garlock Fault (7)
-
Hayward Fault (10)
-
Humboldt County California
-
Eureka California (1)
-
-
Imperial County California
-
Brawley Fault (2)
-
El Centro California (1)
-
Imperial Fault (2)
-
-
Kern County California (5)
-
Lake County California (1)
-
Los Angeles Basin (4)
-
Los Angeles County California
-
Long Beach California (2)
-
Los Angeles California (10)
-
Palmdale California (1)
-
Palos Verdes Peninsula (1)
-
-
Marin County California (1)
-
Mono County California
-
Long Valley Caldera (1)
-
-
Monterey Bay (2)
-
Napa County California (1)
-
Newport-Inglewood Fault (3)
-
Northern California (3)
-
Orange County California (1)
-
Riverside County California (4)
-
Sacramento County California
-
Sacramento California (2)
-
-
Salton Sea (5)
-
Salton Trough (1)
-
San Benito County California
-
Pinnacles National Monument (1)
-
-
San Bernardino County California
-
Cajon Pass (1)
-
Landers California (1)
-
San Gorgonio Pass (3)
-
Trona California (1)
-
-
San Diego County California
-
San Diego California (1)
-
-
San Francisco Bay (2)
-
San Francisco Bay region (10)
-
San Francisco County California
-
San Francisco California (5)
-
-
San Gabriel Fault (1)
-
San Gabriel Mountains (1)
-
San Gregorio Fault (1)
-
San Luis Obispo County California
-
Carrizo Plain (1)
-
San Luis Obispo California (1)
-
-
Santa Barbara Channel (2)
-
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1-20 OF 602 RESULTS FOR
UCERF3
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Journal Article
Trimming the UCERF3-TD logic tree: Model order reduction for an earthquake rupture forecast considering loss exceedance Available to Purchase
Journal: Earthquake Spectra
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Published: 01 February 2025
Earthquake Spectra (2025) 41 (1): 636–653.
... loss exceedance tree trimming epistemic uncertainty One begins by selecting an asset portfolio and evaluating the portfolio loss exceedance curve for one logic-tree leaf. That is, fix every branch to one value and evaluate loss in each rupture in the UCERF3-TD model. Calculate the loss...
Journal Article
Impacts on catastrophe risk assessments from multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures in the UCERF3 model Available to Purchase
Yajie Lee, M.EERI, Zhenghui Hui, M.EERI, Siamak Daneshvaran, Farhad Sedaghati, William P Graf, M.EERI
Journal: Earthquake Spectra
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Published: 01 February 2022
Earthquake Spectra (2022) 38 (1): 128–151.
...Yajie Lee, M.EERI; Zhenghui Hui, M.EERI; Siamak Daneshvaran; Farhad Sedaghati; William P Graf, M.EERI The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) relaxes fault segmentation, allowing multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures through fault-to-fault “jumps,” with lengths up...
Journal Article
Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS) Open Access
Journal: The Seismic Record
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 09 September 2021
The Seismic Record (2021) 1 (2): 117–125.
...Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Morgan T. Page; William H. Savran; Nicholas van der Elst Abstract We describe recent improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS), which continues to represent our most advanced and complete earthquake forecast...
Journal Article
Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3‐ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence Available to Purchase
William H. Savran, Maximilian J. Werner, Warner Marzocchi, David A. Rhoades, David D. Jackson, Kevin Milner, Edward Field, Andrew Michael
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 21 July 2020
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2020) 110 (4): 1799–1817.
... sequences (UCERF3‐ETAS) in a pseudoprospective sense. For comparison, we include a version of the model without explicit faults more closely mimicking traditional ETAS models (UCERF3‐NoFaults). We evaluate the forecasts with new metrics developed within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake...
Journal Article
Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3‐ETAS Model Available to Purchase
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 04 March 2020
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (3): 1567–1578.
...Kevin R. Milner; Edward H. Field; William H. Savran; Morgan T. Page; Thomas H. Jordan Abstract The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high‐performance computing cluster within 33...
Journal Article
Analysis of Mean Seismic Ground Motion and Its Uncertainty Based on the UCERF3 Geologic Slip‐Rate Uncertainty for California Available to Purchase
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 25 April 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1410–1419.
...Yuehua Zeng ABSTRACT The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model ( Field et al. , 2014 ) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered...
Journal Article
Turing‐Style Tests for UCERF3 Synthetic Catalogs Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 13 February 2018
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (2): 729–741.
...Morgan T. Page; Nicholas J. van der Elst Abstract Epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) catalogs generated from the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) model are unique in that they are the first to combine a complex, fault‐based long‐term forecast with short‐term...
Includes: Supplemental Content
Journal Article
A Prototype Operational Earthquake Loss Model for California Based on UCERF3-ETAS – A First Look at Valuation Available to Purchase
Journal: Earthquake Spectra
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Published: 01 November 2017
Earthquake Spectra (2017) 33 (4): 1279–1299.
...Edward Field, M. EERI; Keith Porter, M. EERI; Kevin Milner, M. EERI We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents...
Journal Article
A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) Available to Purchase
Edward H. Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn P. Biasi, Tom Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, II, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Karen R. Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximilian J. Werner, Wayne R. Thatcher
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 12 July 2017
Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (5): 1259–1267.
... into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from...
Journal Article
A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast Available to Purchase
Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Thomas H. Jordan, Andrew J. Michael, Bruce E. Shaw, Maximilian J. Werner
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 28 February 2017
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2017) 107 (3): 1049–1081.
... for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component...
Includes: Supplemental Content
Journal Article
Disaggregating UCERF3 for Site-Specific Applications Available to Purchase
Journal: Earthquake Spectra
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Published: 01 November 2016
Earthquake Spectra (2016) 32 (4): 2009–2026.
...Glenn Biasi, M. EERI; John G. Anderson, M. EERI We present methods to simplify the use of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 (UCERF3) in site-specific seismic hazard analyses. UCERF3 defines the “state-of-practice” for hazard assessments in California and underlies the current...
Journal Article
Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) Available to Purchase
Edward H. Field, Glenn P. Biasi, Peter Bird, Timothy E. Dawson, Karen R. Felzer, David D. Jackson, Kaj M. Johnson, Thomas H. Jordan, Christopher Madden, Andrew J. Michael, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, Tom Parsons, Peter M. Powers, Bruce E. Shaw, Wayne R. Thatcher, Ray J. Weldon, II, Yuehua Zeng
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 10 March 2015
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2015) 105 (2A): 511–543.
... Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time‐dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time‐independent model published previously, renewal models are utilized...
Journal Article
The UCERF3 Grand Inversion: Solving for the Long‐Term Rate of Ruptures in a Fault System Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 03 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1181–1204.
...Morgan T. Page; Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Peter M. Powers Abstract We present implementation details, testing, and results from a new inversion‐based methodology, known colloquially as the “grand inversion,” developed for the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). We...
Journal Article
Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time‐Independent Model Available to Purchase
Edward H. Field, Ramon J. Arrowsmith, Glenn P. Biasi, Peter Bird, Timothy E. Dawson, Karen R. Felzer, David D. Jackson, Kaj M. Johnson, Thomas H. Jordan, Christopher Madden, Andrew J. Michael, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, Tom Parsons, Peter M. Powers, Bruce E. Shaw, Wayne R. Thatcher, Ray J. Weldon, II, Yuehua Zeng
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 01 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1122–1180.
.... Weldon, II; Yuehua Zeng Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP14) present the time‐independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged...
Image
Comparison of peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard with a 2% probability o... Available to Purchase
in A Comprehensive Fault‐System Inversion Approach: Methods and Application to NSHM23
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 22 December 2023
Figure 3. Comparison of peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr between a better converged recalculation of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) and the published UCERF3 ( Field et al. , 2014 ). Shown are hazard ratios
Image
Number of earthquakes expected to occur at UCERF3 paleoseismic sites over a... Open Access
in Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS)
> The Seismic Record
Published: 09 September 2021
Figure 2. Number of earthquakes expected to occur at UCERF3 paleoseismic sites over a 100 yr time period for (a) UCERF3‐TI (time‐independent model), (b) UCERF3‐TD (time‐dependent model), and (c) UCERF3‐ETAS. The implied chance of detecting zero events in a generic 100 yr period is 0.5%, 1.7
Image
3D perspective view of the types of earthquake sources utilized in the Thir... Available to Purchase
in A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 28 February 2017
Figure 1. 3D perspective view of the types of earthquake sources utilized in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Each fault‐based source/rupture is represented by a collection of two or more contiguous fault subsections, the latter of which are depicted as black
Journal Article
Enumerating Plausible Multifault Ruptures in Complex Fault Systems with Physical Constraints Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 25 May 2022
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2022) 112 (4): 1806–1824.
...Kevin R. Milner; Bruce E. Shaw; Edward H. Field ABSTRACT We propose a new model for determining the set of plausible multifault ruptures in an interconnected fault system. We improve upon the rules used in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) to increase connectivity...
Image
(a) Average M ≥6.7 30 yr subsection probabilities for all UCERF3 time‐depe... Available to Purchase
in Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 10 March 2015
Figure 5. (a) Average M ≥6.7 30 yr subsection probabilities for all UCERF3 time‐dependent model branches. (b) UCERF3 subsection probability gains (average time‐dependent result divided by average of all time‐independent/Poisson model branches). (c) Ratio of UCERF3 to UCERF2 probabilities
Journal Article
A Comprehensive Fault‐System Inversion Approach: Methods and Application to NSHM23 Available to Purchase
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 22 December 2023
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2024) 114 (1): 486–522.
...Figure 3. Comparison of peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr between a better converged recalculation of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) and the published UCERF3 ( Field et al. , 2014 ). Shown are hazard ratios...
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