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UCERF3

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Journal Article
Published: 25 April 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018)
...Yuehua Zeng ABSTRACTThe Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model (Field et al., 2014) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered about...
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Journal Article
Published: 13 February 2018
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (2): 729-741.
...Morgan T. Page; Nicholas J. van der Elst AbstractEpidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) catalogs generated from the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) model are unique in that they are the first to combine a complex, fault‐based long‐term forecast with short‐term...
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Journal Article
Published: 12 July 2017
Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (5): 1259-1267.
... into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from...
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Journal Article
Published: 28 February 2017
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2017) 107 (3): 1049-1081.
... for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component...
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Journal Article
Published: 10 March 2015
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2015) 105 (2A): 511-543.
... AbstractThe 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time‐dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time‐independent model published previously, renewal models are utilized...
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Journal Article
Published: 03 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1181-1204.
...Morgan T. Page; Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Peter M. Powers AbstractWe present implementation details, testing, and results from a new inversion‐based methodology, known colloquially as the “grand inversion,” developed for the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). We...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1122-1180.
.... Weldon, II; Yuehua Zeng AbstractThe 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP14) present the time‐independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 September 2015
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2015) 105 (5): 2538-2554.
... to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3), net earthquake rates agree within 4% at m≥5.8 and at m≥7.0. The spatial distribution of UCERF3 epicentroids most resembles GEAR1 after UCERF3 is smoothed with a 30 km kernel. Because UCERF3 has been constructed to derive useful information...
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Journal Article
Published: 10 October 2017
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2017) 107 (6): 2597-2612.
... California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) and the 2008 U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Map Project model. Faults slip beneath a predefined locking depth, except for a few segments where shallow creep is allowed. The slip rates are estimated using a least‐squares inversion...
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Journal Article
Published: 15 March 2016
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2016) 106 (2): 766-784.
... Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault geometries. New GPS velocity and geologic slip‐rate data were compiled by the UCERF3 deformation working group. The result of least‐squares inversion shows that the San Andreas fault slips at 19–22  mm/yr along Santa Cruz to the North Coast, 25–28  mm/yr...
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Image
Slip‐rate misfits for <b>UCERF3</b>, the UCERF2 mapped solution, and <b>UCERF3</b> branch...
Published: 03 June 2014
Figure 15. Slip‐rate misfits for UCERF3, the UCERF2 mapped solution, and UCERF3 branch averages for each deformation model (see Parsons et al. , 2013 for deformation model details). Note that these plots show ratios of the model slip rates to the target, thus deformation models with very small
Image
California‐wide  MFD s for the UCERF2 and mean <b>UCERF3</b> models. The <b>UCERF3</b> mo...
Published: 03 June 2014
Figure 17. California‐wide MFD s for the UCERF2 and mean UCERF3 models. The UCERF3 model does not have a overprediction around M  6.5–7 (the bulge) that was present in UCERF2. Note that above M  7.8 the inversion target MFD only specifies an upper bound.
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UCERF2 to <b>UCERF3</b> ratios. (a) Ratio of the average <b>UCERF3</b> to UCERF2  Off‐Fau...
Published: 01 June 2014
Figure 27. UCERF2 to UCERF3 ratios. (a) Ratio of the average UCERF3 to UCERF2 Off‐Fault Spatial Seis PDF , equal to 0.5(U2 sm +U3 sm )/U2 sm , in which U2 sm is the UCERF2 smoothed seismicity map (Fig.  14a ) and U3 sm is the UCERF3 smoothed seismicity map (Fig.  14b ). This ratio does
Image
UCERF2 to <b>UCERF3</b> ratios. (a) Ratio of the average <b>UCERF3</b> to UCERF2  Off‐Fau...
Published: 01 June 2014
Figure 27. UCERF2 to UCERF3 ratios. (a) Ratio of the average UCERF3 to UCERF2 Off‐Fault Spatial Seis PDF , equal to 0.5(U2 sm +U3 sm )/U2 sm , in which U2 sm is the UCERF2 smoothed seismicity map (Fig.  14a ) and U3 sm is the UCERF3 smoothed seismicity map (Fig.  14b ). This ratio does
Journal Article
Published: 18 April 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018)
... developed the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) model. We find that the inclusion of faults only makes a difference for hazard and risk metrics that are dominated by large‐event likelihoods. We also show how the ShakeMap of a mainshock...
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Journal Article
Published: 10 November 2015
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2015) 105 (6): 3189-3195.
... Forecast (UCERF) 2 and its update, UCERF3, depict slip on these major range-front normal faults as extending well into the caldera, with significant normal slip on overlapping, subparallel segments separated by ∼10  km. This depiction is countered by (1) geologic evidence that normal faulting within...
FIGURES
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28‐yr snapshots of <b>UCERF3</b>‐ETAS at (a) the start and (b) the end of syntheti...
Published: 13 February 2018
Figure 2. 28‐yr snapshots of UCERF3‐ETAS at (a) the start and (b) the end of synthetic 1000‐yr catalogs. (c) The background (spontaneous) events from the catalog shown in (a). (d) The real catalog (1984–2012) is considerably less diffuse than the synthetic UCERF3‐ETAS catalogs, and also less
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Mean depths for bins with more than 20 earthquakes for <b>UCERF3</b>‐ETAS (one hun...
Published: 13 February 2018
Figure 4. Mean depths for bins with more than 20 earthquakes for UCERF3‐ETAS (one hundred 1000‐yr catalogs) and the real catalog. By construction, the UCERF3‐ETAS model does not have depth variation that is present in the real catalog. However, mean depths are not constant in UCERF3‐ETAS
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Clustering analysis of the <b>UCERF3</b>‐ETAS catalog. (a) The rate of clusters as...
Published: 13 February 2018
Figure 10. Clustering analysis of the UCERF3‐ETAS catalog. (a) The rate of clusters as a function of cluster size. Dashed and dashed–dotted lines are, respectively, the 90% confidence range and minimum–maximum range of observations in one hundred 1000‐yr UCERF3‐ETAS synthetic catalogs. (b) Rate
Image
The average cumulative MFD obtained from five hundred 1000‐year <b>UCERF3</b> epid...
Published: 28 February 2017
Figure 11. The average cumulative MFD obtained from five hundred 1000‐year UCERF3 epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) simulations (black line) compared with the target MFD (gray line). Default parameter settings were applied in these simulations, and the target represents the total UCERF3‐TI