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UCERF3

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Journal Article
Published: 01 February 2022
Earthquake Spectra (2022) 38 (1): 128–151.
...Yajie Lee, M.EERI; Zhenghui Hui, M.EERI; Siamak Daneshvaran; Farhad Sedaghati; William P Graf, M.EERI The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) relaxes fault segmentation, allowing multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures through fault-to-fault “jumps,” with lengths up...
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Journal Article
Published: 09 September 2021
The Seismic Record (2021) 1 (2): 117–125.
...Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Morgan T. Page; William H. Savran; Nicholas van der Elst Abstract We describe recent improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS), which continues to represent our most advanced and complete earthquake forecast...
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Journal Article
Published: 21 July 2020
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2020) 110 (4): 1799–1817.
... sequences (UCERF3‐ETAS) in a pseudoprospective sense. For comparison, we include a version of the model without explicit faults more closely mimicking traditional ETAS models (UCERF3‐NoFaults). We evaluate the forecasts with new metrics developed within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake...
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Journal Article
Published: 04 March 2020
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (3): 1567–1578.
...Kevin R. Milner; Edward H. Field; William H. Savran; Morgan T. Page; Thomas H. Jordan Abstract The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high‐performance computing cluster within 33...
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Journal Article
Published: 25 April 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1410–1419.
...Yuehua Zeng ABSTRACT The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model ( Field et al. , 2014 ) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered...
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Journal Article
Published: 13 February 2018
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (2): 729–741.
...Morgan T. Page; Nicholas J. van der Elst Abstract Epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) catalogs generated from the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) model are unique in that they are the first to combine a complex, fault‐based long‐term forecast with short‐term...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 November 2017
Earthquake Spectra (2017) 33 (4): 1279–1299.
...Edward Field, M. EERI; Keith Porter, M. EERI; Kevin Milner, M. EERI We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents...
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Journal Article
Published: 12 July 2017
Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (5): 1259–1267.
... into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from...
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Journal Article
Published: 28 February 2017
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2017) 107 (3): 1049–1081.
... for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 November 2016
Earthquake Spectra (2016) 32 (4): 2009–2026.
...Glenn Biasi, M. EERI; John G. Anderson, M. EERI We present methods to simplify the use of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 (UCERF3) in site-specific seismic hazard analyses. UCERF3 defines the “state-of-practice” for hazard assessments in California and underlies the current...
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Journal Article
Published: 10 March 2015
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2015) 105 (2A): 511–543.
... Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time‐dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time‐independent model published previously, renewal models are utilized...
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Journal Article
Published: 03 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1181–1204.
...Morgan T. Page; Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Peter M. Powers Abstract We present implementation details, testing, and results from a new inversion‐based methodology, known colloquially as the “grand inversion,” developed for the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). We...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1122–1180.
.... Weldon, II; Yuehua Zeng Abstract The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP14) present the time‐independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged...
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Number of earthquakes expected to occur at <span class="search-highlight">UCERF3</span> paleoseismic sites over a...
Published: 09 September 2021
Figure 2. Number of earthquakes expected to occur at UCERF3 paleoseismic sites over a 100 yr time period for (a) UCERF3‐TI (time‐independent model), (b) UCERF3‐TD (time‐dependent model), and (c) UCERF3‐ETAS. The implied chance of detecting zero events in a generic 100 yr period is 0.5%, 1.7
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3D perspective view of the types of earthquake sources utilized in the Thir...
Published: 28 February 2017
Figure 1. 3D perspective view of the types of earthquake sources utilized in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Each fault‐based source/rupture is represented by a collection of two or more contiguous fault subsections, the latter of which are depicted as black
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(a) Average  M ≥6.7 30 yr subsection probabilities for all <span class="search-highlight">UCERF3</span> time‐depe...
Published: 10 March 2015
Figure 5. (a) Average M ≥6.7 30 yr subsection probabilities for all UCERF3 time‐dependent model branches. (b) UCERF3 subsection probability gains (average time‐dependent result divided by average of all time‐independent/Poisson model branches). (c) Ratio of UCERF3 to UCERF2 probabilities
Journal Article
Published: 05 October 2021
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2022) 112 (1): 527–537.
...Edward H. Field; Kevin R. Milner; Nicolas Luco ABSTRACT We use the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (UCERF3‐ETAS) to evaluate the effects of declustering and Poisson assumptions on seismic hazard estimates. Although...
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Cumulative distribution for number of  M  ≥ 3 aftershocks produced within 1...
Published: 09 September 2021
Figure 3. Cumulative distribution for number of M ≥ 3 aftershocks produced within 10 days following all M  5.5–6.5 mainshocks observed in California over the last 28 yr (green line) compared with that implied by 200 28 yr catalogs from UCERF3‐ETAS simulations (blue lines), based on the “Turing
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The spatial distribution of moment rates implied by the UCERF2 smoothed sei...
Published: 01 June 2014
Figure 10. The spatial distribution of moment rates implied by the UCERF2 smoothed seismicity model (Appendix J, Petersen, Mueller, et al. , 2007 ) and the new UCERF3 smoothed seismicity model (Appendix M, Felzer, 2013c ), compared to the average UCERF3 deformation model (described in Fig.  9
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<span class="search-highlight">UCERF3</span>‐based rupture length probabilities for rupture with one end at the S...
Published: 18 May 2021
Figure 9. UCERF3‐based rupture length probabilities for rupture with one end at the San Jacinto Casa Loma step. (a) Individual annual rupture rates (probabilities) (stars) and incremental magnitude–frequency distribution (MFD, solid line, binned at 0.1 magnitude units) of all ruptures in UCERF3