...Te‐Yang Yeh; Kim B. Olsen Abstract The ShakeOut scenario of an M 7.8 northwestward rupture on the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) ( Jones et al. , 2008 ) predicted significant long‐period ground‐motion amplification in the greater Los Angeles, California, area, caused by a waveguide from...

... presence within a large, thin (<1 km thick) sedimentary basin. Numerous paleoseismic studies have shown the Mount Rose fault system has a history of producing large Holocene earthquakes. To help explore this hazard, we used SW4, a physics‐based wave‐equation modeling tool, to develop the Reno ShakeOut...

...Keith A. Porter; Rachel Sherrill The ShakeOut Scenario assessed earth-science impacts, physical damage, and socioeconomic impacts of a hypothetical M7.8 southern San Andreas Fault earthquake. Among many detailed studies were special studies of 12 lifelines, 7 of which were performed by panels...

...Robert W. Graves; Brad T. Aagaard; Kenneth W. Hudnut The ShakeOut Scenario is premised upon the detailed description of a hypothetical M w 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault and the associated simulated ground motions. The main features of the scenario, such as its endpoints...

... conflagrations, are identified based on Scawthorn (2008) . VNC and ER are the Van Norman Complex and Eagle Rock Reservoir, respectively. Approximately 50,000 injuries and 1,800 deaths occur from the ShakeOut Scenario. Half the fatalities result from fire. Economic losses exceed $210 billion...

...Anne Wein; Laurie Johnson; Richard Bernknopf Recovery from an earthquake like the M7.8 ShakeOut Scenario will be a major endeavor taking many years to complete. Hundreds of Southern California municipalities will be affected; most lack recovery plans or previous disaster experience. To support...

...William H. Langer An M w 7.8 earthquake as described in the ShakeOut Scenario would cause significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. Over 6 million tons of newly mined aggregate would be used for emergency repairs and for reconstruction in the five years following the event. This aggregate...

... overlooked resilience strategies, and present evidence and structure of resilience strategies for economic loss modelers. Numerous resilience strategies are compiled from stakeholder discussions about the ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et. al. 2008). Modeled results of ShakeOut BI sector losses reveal variable...

... and are not predictive because of the variable nature of surface rupture. Figure 2. (a) Horizontal fault slip from the kinematic rupture model v.1.2 (shaded) and the background slip distribution or static rupture model (dashed line) for the ShakeOut Scenario event. A map view of the inferred ShakeOut surface...

...William P. Graf; Hope A. Seligson The M7.8 San Andreas earthquake scenario for the ShakeOut exercise subjects more than a million wood-framed buildings to loads beyond their elastic capacity. Residential construction from the boom from the 1960's to 1980's relied heavily upon drywall sheathing...

...Lucile M. Jones; Mark Benthien The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history. On November 13, 2008, over 5 million Southern Californians pretended that the magnitude-7.8 ShakeOut scenario earthquake was occurring...

..., the recommended damage scenario for the ShakeOut drill was 5% of the estimated 150 steel moment-frame structures in the 10–30 story range collapsing, 10% red-tagged, 15% with damage serious enough to cause loss of life, and 20% with visible damage requiring building closure. In order to prepare for the next big...

...Adam Rose; Dan Wei; Anne Wein For the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, we estimate $68 billion in direct and indirect business interruption (BI) and $11 billion in related costs in addition to the $113 billion in property damage in an eight-county Southern California region. The modeled conduits...

.... The reader is referred to Jones et. al. (2008) for the full ShakeOut Scenario, and other supporting studies cited later, for more detail. Note that since the scenario is documented in an open file report whose contents are subject to change, this manuscript summarizes the scenario as of initial publication...