Srinagar, the capital city of Kashmir, has been shaken numerous times by earthquakes in the past millennium, most recently by damaging earthquakes in 1885 (M 6.2, 30 km to the west) and 2005 (M 7.6, 200 km to the west) with estimated EMS (European Macroseismic Scale) intensity VI–VII. Earthquakes in Kashmir in earlier historical times are known only from fragmentary archival sources. We present and analyze unique, repeat photographs of the Pandrethan Temple near Srinagar, which we conclude can provide clues to the severity of nineteenth-century earthquakes. Photos taken in 1868 and 1885 and recently show that the temple, a 5.5-m-square masonry-block structure constructed ca. A.D. 920, was undamaged by these two earthquakes. We conclude that displaced blocks visible in the earliest extant photograph are the result of stronger shaking in the past, the most probable causal earthquake being in 1828. Considering the fragility of the structure, we conclude that anything greater than EMS intensity IX would have caused structural collapse. We thus conclude that Pandrethan has not experienced EMS intensity greater than VIII in the past 200 yr, and possibly not in the past millennium.

Abstract This article summarizes recent advances in our knowledge of the past 1000 years of earthquakes in the Himalaya using geodetic, historical and seismological data, and identifies segments of the Himalaya that remain unruptured. The width of the Main Himalayan Thrust is quantified along the arc, together with estimates for the bounding coordinates of historical rupture zones, convergence rates, rupture propagation directions as constrained by felt intensities. The 2018 slip potential for fifteen segments of the Himalaya are evaluated and potential magnitudes assessed for future earthquakes should these segments fail in isolation or as contiguous ruptures. Ten of these fifteen segments are sufficiently mature currently to host a great earthquake (M w ≥ 8). Fatal Himalayan earthquakes have in the past occurred mostly in the daylight hours. The death toll from a future nocturnal earthquake in the Himalaya could possibly exceed 100 000 due to increased populations and the vulnerability of present-day construction methods.