This paper addresses policy issues related to uncertainty in earthquake risk in the New Madrid seismic zone and similar environments. I evaluate various sources of data and policy implications related to earthquake hazard, vulnerability, and risk (economic and life-safety consequences). Findings support my belief that, despite the significant uncertainties, opportunities exist to address earthquake risk through properly focused policy. These include: (1) assigning high priority to disaster-response emergency services that also address more routine life-safety risks; (2) focusing life-safety mitigation efforts on the most threatening conditions, such as unreinforced masonry construction; (3) ensuring that mitigation of potential economic loss is strengthened by policy that encourages and does not interfere with a competitive and affordable insurance market based on risk-consistent rates; and (4) requiring that public awareness efforts include realistic information on what is known and not known about the hazard to promote a rational basis for individual decision-making and public policy debate. I also show how proper qualification of “lessons learned” from past earthquakes can improve understanding of policy needs and potential impacts.

Abstract Global economic losses related to natural hazards are large and increasing, peaking at US$380 billion in 2011 driven by earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand and flooding in Thailand. Catastrophe models are stochastic event-set based computer models, first created 25 years ago, that are now vital to risk assessment within the insurance and reinsurance industry. They estimate likely losses from extreme events, whether natural or man-made. Most catastrophe models limit the level of user interaction, stereotyped as ‘black boxes’. In this paper we investigate how model fusion techniques could be used to develop ‘plug and play’ catastrophe models and discuss the impact of open access modelling on the insurance industry and other stakeholders (e.g. local government).