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GEAR1

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Journal Article
Published: 01 September 2015
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2015) 105 (5): 2538–2554.
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Prospective  T ‐test results for globally and regionally calibrated seismic...
Published: 06 April 2023
Figure 3. Prospective T ‐test results for globally and regionally calibrated seismicity models for California, New Zealand, and Italy. We show Information Gain per Earthquake (IGPE) obtained by 19 regional models over GEAR1, along with their 95% confidence intervals shown as bars. Green squares
Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1262–1271.
...Anne Strader; Maximilian Werner; José Bayona; Philip Maechling; Fabio Silva; Maria Liukis; Danijel Schorlemmer ABSTRACT The global earthquake activity rate (GEAR1) seismicity model uses an optimized combination of geodetic strain rates, hypotheses about converting strain rates to seismicity rates...
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Journal Article
Published: 06 April 2023
The Seismic Record (2023) 3 (2): 86–95.
...Figure 3. Prospective T ‐test results for globally and regionally calibrated seismicity models for California, New Zealand, and Italy. We show Information Gain per Earthquake (IGPE) obtained by 19 regional models over GEAR1, along with their 95% confidence intervals shown as bars. Green squares...
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T   ‐test results comparing <span class="search-highlight">GEAR1</span>’s performance with those of KJSS, SHIFT_G...
Published: 13 June 2018
Figure 2. T ‐test results comparing GEAR1’s performance with those of KJSS, SHIFT_GSRM, and SHIFT_GSRM2f during the prospective evaluation period. GEAR1 significantly outperforms both tectonics forecasts as well as KJSS, supporting a near‐even combination of geodetic and earthquake‐catalog
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Consistency test results for the <span class="search-highlight">GEAR1</span>, SHIFT_GSRM, SHIFT_GSRM2f, and KJSS ...
Published: 13 June 2018
Figure 3. Consistency test results for the GEAR1, SHIFT_GSRM, SHIFT_GSRM2f, and KJSS forecasts during the 1 October 2015–7 September 2017 period: (a)  N ‐test, (b) conditional likelihood (CL)‐test, (c)  S ‐test, and (d)  M ‐test. Squares indicate that observations are consistent
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Global and regional time‐invariant earthquake forecasting models for Califo...
Published: 06 April 2023
Figure 1. Global and regional time‐invariant earthquake forecasting models for California, New Zealand, and Italy. The first row displays three globally calibrated the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1) M  4.95+ seismicity forecasts, obtained from projecting GEAR1 onto the testing regions
Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1272–1276.
... catalog, it is particularly appropriate for forecasts of total seismicity. Three years of prospective testing have given consistent rankings of four global models of shallow seismicity, demonstrating the expected superiority of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate model v.1 (GEAR1) hybrid forecast relative...
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Forecast maps showing     M  w   ≥  5.95    earthquake epicentroid rates ( ...
Published: 13 June 2018
Figure 1. Forecast maps showing M w ≥ 5.95 earthquake epicentroid rates ( log 10 ( earthquakes / year ) in each 0.1 ° × 0.1 ° spatial bin): (a) the preferred global earthquake activity rate (GEAR1) model ( Bird et al. , 2015 ), (b) Kagan–Jackson smoothed
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Example of     I  1     scoring of long‐term forecast Global Earthquake Act...
Published: 13 June 2018
Figure 1. Example of I 1 scoring of long‐term forecast Global Earthquake Activity Rate model v.1 (GEAR1) in the year 2016. Epicentroid rate densities (top color bar) are converted to base‐2 logarithms of the dimensionless ratio of rate densities (see equation  1 ). This value (bottom
Journal Article
Published: 16 July 2019
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2019) 109 (5): 2036–2049.
... estimate rates of shallow seismicity. Our earthquake models aim to contribute to the improvement of global seismicity models, such as the global earthquake activity rate (GEAR1; Bird et al. , 2015 ) model. GEAR1 is a hybrid seismicity forecast resulting from the optimized log–linear combination...
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Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1226–1228.
... . Bird P. Jackson D. D. Kagan Y. Y. Kreemer C. , and Stein R. S. 2015 . GEAR1: A global earthquake activity rate model constructed from geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity , Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 105 , no.  5 , 2538 – 2554 , doi: 10.1785/0120150058...
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Cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of per‐earthquake contributions to...
Published: 13 June 2018
in that year. Better performance is indicated by a CDF curve which is further to the right. This graph shows that, in 2016, GEAR1 outperformed the other models along most parts of the curve, with two exceptions: SHIFT_GSRM2f was better in one low‐seismicity region ( 1.9 < x < 2.7 ), and smoothed
Journal Article
Published: 25 February 2015
Seismological Research Letters (2015) 86 (2A): 291–293.
... in which ignoring faults altogether, as in the global earthquake activity rate model (GEAR1, Bird et al. , submitted ), may prove just as useful as a model like UCERF3. Likewise, perhaps elastic rebound can be left out of spatiotemporal clustering models in some situations. The point here is that we have...
Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1305–1313.
.... Models based on geodetic strain‐rate data have shown promise. The RELM forecast by Shen et al. (2007) for southern California was about as informative as UCERF2 in forecasting M  5+ shocks. The strongest evidence, however, is based on two years of testing global forecasts: the GEAR1 model ( Bird et...
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Journal Article
Published: 12 April 2024
Seismological Research Letters (2024)
..., et al. , 2010 ). Furthermore, Bayona et al. (2023 ) provide evidence of a similar performance of MPS04 over the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1, Bird et al. , 2015 ) model—a global model that incorporates geodetic strain data, which was not used in this experiment. This underlines...
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Journal Article
Published: 11 January 2024
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2024) 114 (1): 244–257.
... D. , and Agnon A. 1999 . Self‐driven mode switching of earthquake activity on a fault system , Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 172 , nos. 1/2 , 11 – 21 . Bird P. Jackson D. D. Kagan Y. Y. Kreemer C. , and Stein R. 2015 . GEAR1: A global earthquake activity rate...
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Journal Article
Published: 27 July 2022
Seismological Research Letters (2022) 93 (5): 2858–2870.
... D. A. , and Werner M. J. 2022 . Prospective evaluation of multiplicative hybrid earthquake forecasting models in California , Geophys. J. Int. 229 , no.  3 , 1736 – 1753 . Bird P. Jackson D. D. Kagan Y. Y. Kreemer C. , and Stein R. S. 2015 . Gear1: A global...
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Journal Article
Published: 31 May 2024
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2024)
... . Bird P. Jackson D. D. Kagan Y. Y. Kreemer C. , and Stein R. S. 2015 . GEAR1: A global earthquake activity rate model constructed from geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity , Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 105 , no.  5 , 2538 – 2554 , doi: 10.1785/0120150058 . Burkhard...
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Journal Article
Published: 22 November 2023
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2024) 114 (1): 258–277.
.... 2015 . GEAR1: A global earthquake activity rate model constructed from geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity , Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 105 , no.  5 , 2538 – 2554 , doi: 10.1785/0120150058 . Blaser L. Krüger F. Ohrnberger M. , and Scherbaum F. 2010 . Scaling...
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