Abstract Using two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaîne des Puys (Auvergne, France), we tested two geographical information systems (GISs) set up to allow loss assessment during an effusive crisis. The first was a local system that drew on all immediately available data for population, land use, communications, utility and building type. The second was an experimental add-on to the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) global warning system maintained by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) that draws information from open-access global data. After defining lava-flow model source terms (vent location, effusion rate, lava chemistry, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity), we ran all available lava-flow emplacement models to produce a projection for the likelihood of impact for all pixels within the GIS. Next, inundation maps and damage reports for impacted zones were produced, with those produced by both the local system and by GDACS being in good agreement. The exercise identified several shortcomings of the systems, but also indicated that the generation of a GDACS-type global response system for effusive crises that uses rapid-response model projections for lava inundation driven by real-time satellite hotspot detection – and open-access datasets – is within the current capabilities of the community.

Abstract Volcanic eruptions pose a significant risk to human lives, property and infrastructure, despite rapid advances in monitoring and early warning science and technology. Some elements of risk – such as the number of people living close to volcanoes – are increasing, and the unpredictable nature of eruptions may overwhelm the local response capacity and turn into a disaster, sometimes requiring international assistance. To deal effectively with these crises, the international humanitarian community needs a global, science-based early warning system that should assimilate the state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning techniques, as well as being able to provide a preliminary impact assessment, and issue appropriate and relevant alerts. Current volcano warning systems are either only local in context or are not suited to the needs of global early warning. In this paper we propose an outline for a volcano warning system aimed at issuing alerts to the humanitarian aid community. It is designed as a four-level system, incorporating the latest monitoring and hazard modelling techniques that are applicable on a global scale. Alerts are mainly based on the predicted humanitarian impact of the modelled hazards. Systematic handling of volcanic manifestations, such as thermal signals and ash clouds from space-borne instruments, make it possible to create such a system. The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS), a joint effort by the United Nations and the European Commission, has been operating in a similar spirit for other natural disasters for a number of years and could fulfil the role of the desired volcano system. This paper discusses the needs and issues of this undertaking.

Abstract RED SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modelling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. During each day, presentations were given reviewing the state of the art in terms of (a) volcano hot spot detection and parameterization, (b) operational satellite-based hot spot detection systems, (c) lava flow modelling and (d) response protocols during effusive crises. At the end of each presentation set, the four groups retreated to discuss and report on requirements for a truly integrated and operational response that satisfactorily combines remote sensors, modellers and responders during an effusive crisis. The results of collating the final reports, and follow-up discussions that have been on-going since the workshop, are given here. We can reduce our discussions to four main findings. (1) Hot spot detection tools are operational and capable of providing effusive eruption onset notice within 15 min. (2) Spectral radiance metrics can also be provided with high degrees of confidence. However, if we are to achieve a truly global system, more local receiving stations need to be installed with hot spot detection and data processing modules running on-site and in real time. (3) Models are operational, but need real-time input of reliable time-averaged discharge rate data and regular updates of digital elevation models if they are to be effective; the latter can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community. (4) Information needs to be provided in an agreed and standard format following an ensemble approach and using models that have been validated and recognized as trustworthy by the responding authorities. All of this requires a sophisticated and centralized data collection, distribution and reporting hub that is based on a philosophy of joint ownership and mutual trust. While the next chapter carries out an exercise to explore the viability of the last point, the detailed recommendations behind these findings are detailed here.