Abstract FLOWGO is a one-dimensional model that tracks the thermorheological evolution of lava flowing down a channel. The model does not spread the lava but, instead, follows a control volume as it descends a line of steepest descent centred on the channel axis. The model basis is the Jeffreys equation for Newtonian flow, modified for a Bingham fluid, and a series of heat loss equations. Adjustable relationships are used to calculate cooling, crystallization and down-channel increases in viscosity and yield strength, as well as the resultant decrease in velocity. Here we provide a guide that allows FLOWGO to be set up in Excel. In doing so, we show how the model can be executed using a slope profile derived from Google™ Earth. Model simplicity and ease of source-term input from Google™ Earth means that this exercise allows (i) easy access to the model, (ii) quick, global application and (iii) use in a teaching role. Output is tested using measurements made for the 2010 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island). The model is also set up for rapid syneruptive hazard assessment at Piton de la Fournaise, as we show using the example of the response to the June 2014 eruption.

Abstract Prediction of the emplacement of volcanic mass flows (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents, debris avalanches and debris flows) is required for hazard and risk assessment, and for the planning of risk-mitigation measures. Numerical computer-based models now exist that are capable of approximating the motion of a given volume of volcanic material from its source to the deposition area. With these advances in technology, it is useful to compare the various codes in order to evaluate their respective suitability for real-time forecasting, risk preparedness and post-eruptive response. A ‘benchmark’ compares codes or methods, all aimed at simulating the same physical process using common initial and boundary conditions and outputs, but using different physical formulations, mathematical approaches and numerical techniques. We set up the basis for a future general benchmarking exercise on volcanic mass-flow models and, more specifically, establish a benchmark series for computational lava-flow modelling. We describe a set of benchmarks in this paper, and present a few sample results to demonstrate output analysis and code evaluation methodologies. The associated web-based communal facility for sharing test scenarios and results is also described.

Abstract Using two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaîne des Puys (Auvergne, France), we tested two geographical information systems (GISs) set up to allow loss assessment during an effusive crisis. The first was a local system that drew on all immediately available data for population, land use, communications, utility and building type. The second was an experimental add-on to the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) global warning system maintained by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) that draws information from open-access global data. After defining lava-flow model source terms (vent location, effusion rate, lava chemistry, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity), we ran all available lava-flow emplacement models to produce a projection for the likelihood of impact for all pixels within the GIS. Next, inundation maps and damage reports for impacted zones were produced, with those produced by both the local system and by GDACS being in good agreement. The exercise identified several shortcomings of the systems, but also indicated that the generation of a GDACS-type global response system for effusive crises that uses rapid-response model projections for lava inundation driven by real-time satellite hotspot detection – and open-access datasets – is within the current capabilities of the community.

Abstract RED SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modelling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. During each day, presentations were given reviewing the state of the art in terms of (a) volcano hot spot detection and parameterization, (b) operational satellite-based hot spot detection systems, (c) lava flow modelling and (d) response protocols during effusive crises. At the end of each presentation set, the four groups retreated to discuss and report on requirements for a truly integrated and operational response that satisfactorily combines remote sensors, modellers and responders during an effusive crisis. The results of collating the final reports, and follow-up discussions that have been on-going since the workshop, are given here. We can reduce our discussions to four main findings. (1) Hot spot detection tools are operational and capable of providing effusive eruption onset notice within 15 min. (2) Spectral radiance metrics can also be provided with high degrees of confidence. However, if we are to achieve a truly global system, more local receiving stations need to be installed with hot spot detection and data processing modules running on-site and in real time. (3) Models are operational, but need real-time input of reliable time-averaged discharge rate data and regular updates of digital elevation models if they are to be effective; the latter can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community. (4) Information needs to be provided in an agreed and standard format following an ensemble approach and using models that have been validated and recognized as trustworthy by the responding authorities. All of this requires a sophisticated and centralized data collection, distribution and reporting hub that is based on a philosophy of joint ownership and mutual trust. While the next chapter carries out an exercise to explore the viability of the last point, the detailed recommendations behind these findings are detailed here.

Abstract VolcFlow is a finite-difference Eulerian code based on the depth-averaged approach and developed for the simulation of isothermal geophysical flows. Its capability for reproducing lava flows is tested here for the first time. The field example chosen is the 2010 lava flow of Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador), the emplacement of which is tracked by projecting thermal images onto a georeferenced digital topography. Results show that, at least for this case study, the isothermal approach of VolcFlow is able to simulate the velocity of the lava through time, as well as the extent of the solidified lava. However, the good fit between the modelled and the natural flow may be explained by the short emplacement time ( c. 20 h) of a thick lava ( c. 5 m), which could limit the influence of cooling on the flow dynamics, thus favouring the use of an isothermal rheology.

Abstract Lava ingress into a vulnerable population will be difficult to control, so that evacuation will be necessary for communities in the path of the active lava, followed by post-event population, infrastructural, societal and community replacement and/or relocation. There is a pressing need to set up a response chain that bridges scientists and responders during an effusive crisis to allow near-real-time delivery of globally standard ‘products’ for a timely and adequate humanitarian response. In this chain, the scientific research groups investigating lava remote-sensing and modelling need to provide products that are both useful to, and trusted by, the crisis response community. Requirements for these products include (a) formats that can be immediately integrated into a crisis management procedure, and (b) in an agreed and stable standard. A review of current capability reveals that we are at a point where the community can provide such a response, as is the aim of the RED SEED (Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters) working group. This book is the first production of this group and is intended not only as a directory of current capabilities and operational service providers, but also as a statement of intent and need, while providing a simulation designed to demonstrate how a truly pan-disciplinary response to an effusive crisis could work.

Abstract LavaSIM is a lava -flow simulator to carry out three-dimensional (3D) analysis of solid–liquid two-phase lava flows. Heat transfer between molten lava and solidified crust into the air, water and ground is calculated using radiation equations, so we can simulate not only the lava-flow distribution but also its physical characteristics: for instance, the internal convectional structure. Lava viscosity can be treated as a function of temperature, and is associated with the percentage of crystallization. The stop condition for the lava flow is determined by calculating the minimum spreading thickness, taking into consideration the yield strength. This paper also discusses whether LavaSIM, the deterministic lava-flow simulation, can be applied to basaltic lava flows and allow lava-flow characteristics, such as inundated area, temperature distribution, crust–melt distribution, velocity and pressure field, to be quantitatively evaluated.

Abstract Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion) and Karthala (Grande Comore) are the two active volcanoes of the Southwestern Indian Ocean. A 14 month (April 2013 to June 2014) monitoring period was carried out at both volcanoes using synthetic aperture RADAR interferometry (InSAR) techniques on RADARSAT-2 data. Thanks to the SEAS-OI (Survey of Environment Assisted by Satellite in the Indian Ocean) station, 21 SAR scenes were acquired over this period and InSAR results revealed the slow subsidence of the Dolomieu caldera floor at Piton de la Fournaise, following the 2009 and 2010 eruptions, and the subsidence of the whole cone between April and July 2013. At Karthala no evidence of any volcanic activity was found for the period April 2013 to June 2014. The use of systematic InSAR for volcano monitoring is an efficient tool to study effusive eruptions. We showed that, during periods of unrest, InSAR is able to pick up early signs of a future eruption and monitor secondary phenomena that require no real-time data. During an effusive crisis, it is still difficult to carry out fully operational InSAR monitoring, but using the example of the June 2014 eruption at Piton de la Fournaise, we show that SAR data can help with the detection and tracking of lava flows and active flow paths during effusive eruptions, based on SAR coherence and SAR amplitude. These preliminary results are very promising for the future of InSAR monitoring of active volcanoes and highlight the need for near-real-time access to SAR data in the mapping of active lava flows during effusive eruptions. This study also revealed the major role of ground stations like SEAS-OI in the efficiency of this monitoring, supplying free, near-real-time remote sensing data to the scientific and institutional communities.

Abstract Timely detection and quantification of lava effusion rates are crucial for volcanic hazard mitigation during effusive eruptions. Satellite-based detection methods typically exploit the exceptional radiant heat fluxes associated with lava effusion, but effusive eruptions can also emit prodigious amounts of sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ). Measuring the magnitude and temporal evolution of SO 2 emissions provides an additional means for monitoring effusive eruptions, complementing thermal monitoring. Examples of effusive eruptions detected since 1978 using ultraviolet (UV) satellite measurements of SO 2 emissions by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) are reviewed. During many effusive eruptions, trends in SO 2 production mimic the classic waxing–waning pattern characteristic of such events that is also seen in thermal infrared (TIR) hotspot data, suggesting a qualitative link between SO 2 emissions and lava effusion rates. An example of lava effusion rate calculation based on TOMS SO 2 measurements is presented for the 1998 eruption of Cerro Azul (Galápagos Islands), for which detailed eruption observations and independent estimates of effusion rates are available. Combining TOMS-derived SO 2 emission rates with estimates of sulphur content in Cerro Azul lavas yields lava effusion rates almost identical to independently derived values, demonstrating the utility of the technique.

Abstract A new shallow-depth approximation model for lava flow advance and cooling on a quantized topography is presented in this paper. To apply the model, lava rheology is described using a non-isothermal three-dimensional viscoplastic fluid in which the rheological properties are assumed to be temperature dependent. Asymptotic analysis allows a three-dimensional flow scenario to be reduced to a two-dimensional problem using depth-averaged equations. These equations are numerically approximated by an autoadaptive finite element method, based on the Rheolef C++ library, which allows economy of computational time. Here, the proposed approach is first evaluated by comparing numerical output with non-isothermal experimental results for a flow of silicon oil. Finally, the December 2010 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island) is numerically reproduced and compared with available data.