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Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

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Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1226–1228.
...Andrew J. Michael; Maximilian J. Werner 30 May 2018 © Seismological Society of America The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP; Jordan, 2006 ) carries out fully prospective tests of earthquake forecasts, using fixed and standardized statistical tests...
Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1305–1313.
... ABSTRACT The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development...
FIGURES
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Target <span class="search-highlight">earthquakes</span> in the 5‐yr <span class="search-highlight">Collaboratory</span> for the <span class="search-highlight">Study</span> of <span class="search-highlight">Earthquake</span> Pr...
Published: 13 June 2018
Figure 1. Target earthquakes in the 5‐yr Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) experiments in Italy. Yellow boxes are earthquakes of magnitude 3.95 ≤ M < 4.95 , and red boxes are for M ≥ 4.95 . (Inset) Enlarged view of the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence.
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Location of depth &lt;40 km events in the 1990–2020 GeoNet catalog. The red...
Published: 09 February 2022
Figure 2. Location of depth <40 km events in the 1990–2020 GeoNet catalog. The red polygon represents the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability region ( Gerstenberger and Rhoades, 2010 ). Moderate‐to‐large earthquakes ( M w ≥ 6 ) are also highlighted. The color
Image
Boxplots of     R  n     versus     τ  n     for subsets of the Internation...
Published: 30 November 2023
with M c = 5.45 in the New Zealand Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) testing region. The value of n decreases from n = 20 to n = 1 from left to right. The color version of this figure is available only in the electronic edition.
Journal Article
Published: 27 July 2022
Seismological Research Letters (2022) 93 (5): 2858–2870.
...William H. Savran; José A. Bayona; Pablo Iturrieta; Khawaja M. Asim; Han Bao; Kirsty Bayliss; Marcus Herrmann; Danijel Schorlemmer; Philip J. Maechling; Maximilian J. Werner Abstract The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is an open and global community whose mission...
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Journal Article
Published: 09 February 2022
Seismological Research Letters (2022) 93 (3): 1601–1618.
...Figure 2. Location of depth <40 km events in the 1990–2020 GeoNet catalog. The red polygon represents the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability region ( Gerstenberger and Rhoades, 2010 ). Moderate‐to‐large earthquakes ( M w ≥ 6 ) are also highlighted. The color...
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Journal Article
Published: 06 December 2022
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2023) 113 (1): 333–347.
...Khawaja M. Asim; Danijel Schorlemmer; Sebastian Hainzl; Pablo Iturrieta; William H. Savran; José A. Bayona; Maximilian J. Werner ABSTRACT The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is an international effort to evaluate probabilistic earthquake forecasting models. CSEP...
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Journal Article
Published: 23 June 2020
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2020) 110 (4): 1736–1751.
... of statistical tests used within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and compare their skills against a standard benchmark epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for the short (24 hr after the two Ridgecrest mainshocks) and intermediate terms (one month). Stress‐based forecasts...
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Journal Article
Published: 06 April 2023
The Seismic Record (2023) 3 (2): 86–95.
... prospectively assess the ability of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1) model and 19 time‐independent regional models to forecast M 4.95+ seismicity in California, New Zealand, and Italy from 2014 through 2021, using metrics developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP...
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Global and regional time‐invariant <span class="search-highlight">earthquake</span> forecasting models for Califo...
Published: 06 April 2023
previously defined the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Rows 2–4 show some of the regional models that participate in regional CSEP forecast experiments. Expected numbers of M  4.95+ earthquakes from 1 January 2014 to 1 January 2022 are shown per 0.1° × 0.1° cell. Yellow
Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1238–1250.
... by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) concluded that a suite of coulomb‐based seismicity models were less informative than empirical models during the aftershock sequence of the 1992 M w 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake. Recently, a new generation of coulomb‐based and coulomb...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 February 2011
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2011) 101 (1): 297–312.
... predictive power than a stationary reference model based on smoothed extrapolation of past seismicity. The official prospective test for California started on 1 July 2009 in the testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability ( CSEP ). During the first nine months, 44 M ≥4...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 August 2011
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2011) 101 (4): 1630–1648.
...Maximilian J. Werner; Agnès Helmstetter; David D. Jackson; Yan Y. Kagan Abstract We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability ( CSEP ). The first is a time-independent model...
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Journal Article
Published: 21 July 2020
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2020) 110 (4): 1799–1817.
... (USGS), motivating model evaluations also from a practical perspective. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has established the philosophy and cyber‐infrastructure required to conduct earthquake forecasting experiments in an unbiased and transparent fashion ( Jordan...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 June 2013
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2013) 103 (3): 1692–1708.
...‐earthquake. In addition, our experiments revealed a technical difficulty in the one‐day forecasting protocol adopted by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability ( CSEP ). Results of further experiments lead us to recommend specific modifications to the CSEP protocols, leading to real‐time...
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Journal Article
Published: 07 May 2019
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2019) 109 (3): 1110–1124.
... recommended by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability have been carried out to test different options in the model application. Results show that our method can accurately forecast the number of observed events. Models with longer time duration of input catalog perform better resulting...
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Journal Article
Published: 01 April 2013
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2013) 103 (2A): 845–859.
...A. Mignan; C. Jiang; J. D. Zechar; S. Wiemer; Z. Wu; Z. Huang Abstract We describe the setup of testing regions for the China Earthquake Forecast Testing Center and provide preliminary forecast results in the scope of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability ( CSEP ) project. We...
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Journal Article
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1277–1287.
... models with the best two models of the Italian Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) experiment and retrospectively test them with the CSEP methodology. We observed that the ensemble model performs slightly better than the optimized fixed and the adaptive smoothing seismicity...
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Map showing the locations of <span class="search-highlight">Collaboratory</span> for the <span class="search-highlight">Study</span> of <span class="search-highlight">Earthquake</span> Pred...
Published: 13 June 2018
Figure 1. Map showing the locations of Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) testing centers and testing regions. The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Testing Center in Los Angeles operates the testing regions of California, western Pacific, oceanic transform