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![Histograms of p ‐values for (a) the <span class="search-highlight">CSEP</span> T ‐test and (b) the Diebold–Mari...]()
![(a) Grid of the test area in this work and in the <span class="search-highlight">CSEP</span> experiment ( Schorle...]()
![Earthquake probabilities for the LASSCI SB sources for <span class="search-highlight">CSEP</span> test. Cond...]()
![Map of the California region, showing the <span class="search-highlight">CSEP</span> -defined test region (dashe...]()
![(a) Test site outlined in red (red box) as part of the Collaboratory for th...]()
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![Figure 5 , but for the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictab...]()
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![(a) Map of New Zealand showing the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquak...]()
![(a,b) Retrospective forecast for 24 August 2005 to 24 August 2010 using iso...]()
![Global and regional time‐invariant earthquake forecasting models for Califo...]()
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1-20 OF 179 RESULTS FOR
CSEP
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1
Journal Article
Critical Questions About CSEP, in the Spirit of Dave, Yan, and Ilya
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 11 October 2024
Seismological Research Letters (2024) 95 (6): 3617–3625.
...Frederic Schoenberg; Danijel Schorlemmer Abstract In honor of our dear departed friends Yan Kagan, Dave Jackson, and Ilya Zaliapin, we propose a selection of broad questions regarding earthquake forecasting and especially the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP...
Journal Article
Prospective CSEP Evaluation of 1‐Day, 3‐Month, and 5‐Yr Earthquake Forecasts for Italy
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1251–1261.
...M. Taroni; W. Marzocchi; D. Schorlemmer; M. J. Werner; S. Wiemer; J. D. Zechar; L. Heiniger; F. Euchner ABSTRACT In 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched three experiments to forecast the distribution of earthquakes in Italy in the subsequent 5...
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Includes: Supplemental Content
Journal Article
Preface to the Focus Section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP): New Results and Future Directions
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1226–1228.
...Andrew J. Michael; Maximilian J. Werner 30 May 2018 © Seismological Society of America The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP; Jordan, 2006 ) carries out fully prospective tests of earthquake forecasts, using fixed and standardized statistical tests...
Journal Article
The Assumption of Poisson Seismic-Rate Variability in CSEP/RELM Experiments
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 01 October 2010
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2010) 100 (5A): 2293–2300.
... ( CSEP ). Basically, the evaluation process consists of two steps: (1) to run simultaneously all codes to forecast future seismicity in well-defined testing regions; (2) to compare the forecasts through a suite of statistical tests. The tests are based on the likelihood score, and they check both the time...
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Image
Histograms of p ‐values for (a) the CSEP T ‐test and (b) the Diebold–Mari...
in Enhancing the Statistical Evaluation of Earthquake Forecasts—An Application to Italy
> Seismological Research Letters
Published: 03 December 2024
Figure B3. Histograms of p ‐values for (a) the CSEP T ‐test and (b) the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test of equal predictive ability in terms of the Poisson scoring function for Mix A versus Mix B , and Mix A S versus Mix B S , respectively, based on 400 replicates
Image
(a) Grid of the test area in this work and in the CSEP experiment ( Schorle...
in A Ten‐Year Earthquake Occurrence Model for Italy
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 01 June 2012
Figure 1. (a) Grid of the test area in this work and in the CSEP experiment ( Schorlemmer, Christophersen, et al. 2010 ). (b) Probability of detecting an earthquake with magnitude 3.7 or larger in the testing area ( Schorlemmer, Mele, and Marzocchi, 2010 ).
Image
Earthquake probabilities for the LASSCI SB sources for CSEP test. Cond...
in Fault-Based Earthquake Rupture Forecast in Central Italy: Remarks after the L’Aquila M w 6.3 Event
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 01 February 2011
Figure 2. Earthquake probabilities for the LASSCI SB sources for CSEP test. Conditional probability of occurrence of an M max event in the next 5 yr from 1 April 2009 using BPT distributions for sources having the date of the last event (details given in Table 1 ); the identification
Image
Map of the California region, showing the CSEP -defined test region (dashe...
in Mixture Models for Improved Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 01 April 2009
Figure 2. Map of the California region, showing the CSEP -defined test region (dashed polygon) and locations of M ≥5.0 earthquakes, 1984–2004.
Image
(a) Test site outlined in red (red box) as part of the Collaboratory for th...
in Bayesian Earthquake Forecasting Using Gaussian Process Modeling: GP‐ETAS Applications
> Seismological Research Letters
Published: 03 October 2024
Figure 4. (a) Test site outlined in red (red box) as part of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) test region in California, with the color‐coded Helmstetter et al. (2007 ; referred as HE07) forecast. The remainder of the CSEP test region is shown by the dotted
Journal Article
Enhancing the Statistical Evaluation of Earthquake Forecasts—An Application to Italy
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 03 December 2024
Seismological Research Letters (2024)
...Figure B3. Histograms of p ‐values for (a) the CSEP T ‐test and (b) the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test of equal predictive ability in terms of the Poisson scoring function for Mix A versus Mix B , and Mix A S versus Mix B S , respectively, based on 400 replicates...
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Journal Article
New Features in the pyCSEP Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Development and Evaluation
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 01 October 2024
Seismological Research Letters (2024) 95 (6): 3449–3463.
...Kenny M. Graham; José A. Bayona; Asim M. Khawaja; Pablo Iturrieta; Francesco Serafini; Emanuele Biondini; David A. Rhoades; William H. Savran; Philip J. Maechling; Matthew C. Gerstenberger; Fabio Silva; Maximilian J. Werner Abstract The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP...
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Journal Article
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1305–1313.
... ABSTRACT The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development...
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Image
Figure 5 , but for the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictab...
in Enhancing the Statistical Evaluation of Earthquake Forecasts—An Application to Italy
> Seismological Research Letters
Published: 03 December 2024
Figure B1. Figure 5 , but for the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) T ‐test. The color version of this figure is available only in the electronic edition.
Journal Article
Ensemble Smoothed Seismicity Models for the New Italian Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 13 June 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1277–1287.
... models with the best two models of the Italian Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) experiment and retrospectively test them with the CSEP methodology. We observed that the ensemble model performs slightly better than the optimized fixed and the adaptive smoothing seismicity...
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Includes: Supplemental Content
Journal Article
Completeness of the Mainland China Earthquake Catalog and Implications for the Setup of the China Earthquake Forecast Testing Center
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 01 April 2013
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2013) 103 (2A): 845–859.
...A. Mignan; C. Jiang; J. D. Zechar; S. Wiemer; Z. Wu; Z. Huang Abstract We describe the setup of testing regions for the China Earthquake Forecast Testing Center and provide preliminary forecast results in the scope of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability ( CSEP ) project. We...
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(a) Map of New Zealand showing the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquak...
in New Features in the pyCSEP Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Development and Evaluation
> Seismological Research Letters
Published: 01 October 2024
Figure 1. (a) Map of New Zealand showing the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) test region, outlined by a black polygon ( Gerstenberger and Rhoades, 2010 ), and epicenters of earthquakes with M ≥4.95 during the period 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2017 (213 events
Image
(a,b) Retrospective forecast for 24 August 2005 to 24 August 2010 using iso...
in A Nonparametric Hawkes Model for Forecasting California Seismicity
> Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Published: 18 May 2021
Predictability (CSEP) forecast for Helmstetter et al. (2007) with N pred = 35.4 events. (d–f) Histograms of forecasted rates in the 7682 cells of the CSEP testing region for isotropic MISD (equation 2 ), anisotropic MISD (equation 5 ), and Helmstetter et al. (2007) , respectively. Rates
Image
Global and regional time‐invariant earthquake forecasting models for Califo...
in Are Regionally Calibrated Seismicity Models More Informative than Global Models? Insights from California, New Zealand, and Italy
> The Seismic Record
Published: 06 April 2023
previously defined the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Rows 2–4 show some of the regional models that participate in regional CSEP forecast experiments. Expected numbers of M 4.95+ earthquakes from 1 January 2014 to 1 January 2022 are shown per 0.1° × 0.1° cell. Yellow
Journal Article
Multi‐Resolution Grids in Earthquake Forecasting: The Quadtree Approach
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 06 December 2022
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2023) 113 (1): 333–347.
...Khawaja M. Asim; Danijel Schorlemmer; Sebastian Hainzl; Pablo Iturrieta; William H. Savran; José A. Bayona; Maximilian J. Werner ABSTRACT The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is an international effort to evaluate probabilistic earthquake forecasting models. CSEP...
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Includes: Supplemental Content
Journal Article
pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Developers
Journal: Seismological Research Letters
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Published: 27 July 2022
Seismological Research Letters (2022) 93 (5): 2858–2870.
...William H. Savran; José A. Bayona; Pablo Iturrieta; Khawaja M. Asim; Han Bao; Kirsty Bayliss; Marcus Herrmann; Danijel Schorlemmer; Philip J. Maechling; Maximilian J. Werner Abstract The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is an open and global community whose mission...
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Includes: Supplemental Content
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