Abstract Lithospheric thinning and crustal extension have shaped the Alpine orogen in western Anatolia since the late Oligocene, resulting in the denudation of one of Earth’s largest metamorphic core complexes, the Menderes Massif. We review locations and characteristics of geothermal fields and of Miocene mineral deposits in the context of crustal structure and geodynamic processes. Thermal spring locations show a close spatial association with active fault zones; the largest geothermal areas are located in the widest graben and at fault intersections, but show little relation to volcanic activity. During the first stage of tectonic denudation in the Miocene, epithermal, porphyry-type gold and structurally controlled base-metal deposits formed synchronously with K-rich volcanic and plutonic complexes in the northern Menderes Massif. Depositional environments favoured the formation of lignite, sedimentary uranium and borate deposits. Throughout this phase of extension in a hot continental setting, secondary porosity caused by brittle faulting of metamorphic basement rocks provided the key pathways for fluids and magmas. Although the Menderes Massif has remained in a similar position relative to active plate boundaries from the Miocene to the present, three significant changes in subcontinental mantle dynamics affected the nature of hydrothermal flow. First, the partial removal of lithospheric mantle changed the primary source component of magmatic rocks and metals from metasomatized lithosphere mantle to asthenospheric mantle. Secondly, surface uplift and progressive crustal extension led to segmentation of the Miocene land surface along NNE–SSW- and east–west-orientated fault zones, which changed the overall structural control on crustal permeability. Finally, hydrothermal flow changed from locally magmatic driven, to focused flow of topographically and thermally driven fluids in the crust, with high background heat flow caused by regional upwelling of the asthenosphere. The Menderes Massif is a continental tectonic domain that has experienced rapid thinning of lithospheric mantle and crustal extension in an overall convergent plate tectonic setting. The tectonic and geodynamic framework for evolving hydrothermal activity in western Anatolia may be applicable to other ore-forming systems in hot, extending continental crust in Earth’s history. Supplementary material: Supplement 1: Compilation of 124 thermal spring temperature measurements from Akkuş et al. (2005); Supplement 2: Compilation of 127 geothermal well temperature measurements from Akkuş et al. (2005) is available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3803935

Abstract: A natural CO 2 reservoir system with a sandstone lithology in NW Hungary has been studied due to its similarities to a large saline reservoir formation that is widespread in the the Pannonian Basin (Central Europe) and is suggested to be one of the best candidates for industrial CO 2 storage. A range of analytical techniques has been used on core samples from CO 2 -containing sandstone layers that represent a wide range of pressures (90–155 bar), temperatures (79–95°C) and pore fluid compositions (total dissolved solids between 18 000 and 50 700 mg l −1 ) to identify the mineralogy and textural characteristics of the natural reservoir. The only clear CO 2 -related feature in the studied lithology was the occurrence of dawsonite (NaAlCO 3 (OH) 2 ) in a close textural relationship with albite. This is in clear agreement with our geochemical modelling results, which also underline the presence of albite as a precondition for the crystallization of dawsonite at the given P – T – X conditions. Our results suggest that, at least in the Pannonian Basin, dawsonite may be an important mineral for the safe sequestration of industrial CO 2 in the subsurface.

Abstract The observation of volcanic thermal activity from space dates back to the late 1960s. Several methods have been proposed to improve detection and monitoring capabilities of thermal volcanic features, and to characterize them to improve our understanding of volcanic processes, as well as to inform operational decisions. In this paper we review the RST VOLC algorithm, which has been designed and implemented for automated detection and near-real-time monitoring of volcanic hotspots. The algorithm is based on the general Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) approach, representing an original strategy for satellite data analysis in the space–time domain. It has proven to be a useful tool for investigating volcanoes worldwide, by means of different satellite sensors, onboard polar orbiting and geostationary platforms. The RST VOLC rationale, its requirements and main operational capabilities are described here, together with the advantages of the tool and the known limitations. Results achieved through the study of two past eruptive events are shown, together with some recent examples demonstrating the near-continuous monitoring capability offered by RST VOLC . A summary is also made of the type products that the method is able to generate and provide. Lastly, the future perspectives, in terms of its possible implementation on the new generation of satellite systems, are briefly discussed.

Abstract The AVHotRR routine has been in operation since 2006 to process satellite data for monitoring active volcanoes in the Mediterranean area. Although originally developed to work with advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data, AVHotRR has been developed over the years to adapt to other sensors. In this work we present an improved version of the algorithm for hot-spot detection and effusion rate estimate. The underlying principles upon which the algorithm is based are discussed, focusing on the enhancements. The currently implemented version makes it possible to integrate results from different datasets in order to better constrain the detection of volcanic hot spots. In particular, the high temporal resolution of the SEVIRI instrument aboard MSG is key to reducing false positives in AVHRR and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer MODIS images. We propose here a new detection method based on the wavelet transform of SEVIRI data. Results from the application of AVHotRR to a dataset of AVHRR and SEVIRI images from Mt Etna, Italy, are presented and discussed with reference to the advantages and limitations of the algorithm.

Abstract Thermal observations of volcanic activity when the volcano is partially covered by clouds or observed under a wide-scan angle are often removed from further analyses. In the event of a volcanic crisis, such a reduced set of data is not adequate. Even when the observation conditions are favourable, the full observation set is still required to provide decision-makers with quality information about the data. Automatic quality estimation and outlier detection was not estimated in the past. We propose to analytically define the uncertainty for individual observations based on the measurement circumstances. To additionally reduce the temporal noise of the radiant power ( RP ) time series we apply a Kalman Filter (KF). The KF is able to recursively analyse an unevenly sampled time series. Based on some proposed rules, it can also detect outliers. We apply the proposed methodology to the 2008–09 Etna eruption monitored by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The analysis of the results shows that the topography has a greater influence on RP than previously considered.

Abstract DOWNFLOW is a probabilistic code for the simulation of the area covered by lava flows. This code has been used extensively for several basaltic volcanoes in the last decade, and a review of some applications is presented. DOWNFLOW is based on the simple principle that a lava flow tends to follow the steepest descent path downhill from the vent. DOWNFLOW computes the area possibly inundated by lava flows by deriving a number, N , of steepest descent paths, each path being calculated over a randomly perturbed topography. The perturbation is applied at each point of the topography, and ranges within the interval ±Δ h . N and Δ h are the two basic parameters of the code. The expected flow length is constrained by statistical weighting based on the past activity of the volcano. The strength of the code is that: (i) only limited volcanological knowledge is necessary to apply the code at a given volcano; (ii) there are only two (easily tunable) input parameters; and (iii) computational requirements are very low. However, DOWNFLOW does not provide the progression of the lava emplacement over time. The use of DOWNFLOW is ideal when a large number of simulations are necessary: for example, to compile maps for hazard and risk-assessment purposes.

Abstract GPUSPH is a fully three-dimensional model for the simulation of the thermal and rheological evolution of lava flows that relies on the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) numerical method. Thanks to the Lagrangian, meshless nature of SPH, the model incorporates a more complete physical description of the emplacement process and rheology of lava that considers the free surface, the irregular boundaries represented by the topography, the solidification fronts and the non-Newtonian rheology with temperature-dependent parameters. GPUSPH follows the very general Herschel–Bulkley rheological model, which encompasses Newtonian, power-law and Bingham flow behaviours, with both constant and temperature-dependent parameters, and can thus be used to explore in detail the impact of rheology on the behaviour of lava flows and on their emplacement. To illustrate this possibility, we present some preliminary applications of the model for studying the rheology of lava flows with different constitutive relationships and thermal regimes using the real topography of the Mt Etna volcano.

Abstract Etna volcano is characterized by frequent effusive eruptions from the summit craters or from flank fissures, and these have often threatened villages, infrastructures and tourist facilities. Considerable experience of lava-flow mitigation has been gained by scientists working on this volcano, and in this paper we principally discuss the problems arising from lava flows emplaced during the 2002–03 flank eruption, when eruptive fissures opened both on the northern and southern flanks of the volcano, feeding lava flows towards several villages, tourist facilities and forests. We highlight the importance of the monitoring system to follow the spreading of eruptive fissures and predict when they stopped propagating. We illustrate the value of thermal mapping in identifying active lava flows, in measuring effusion rates to estimate the maximum distance that flows can travel, and in obtaining reliable lava-flow simulations in real time in order to predict possible paths of the lava flow and to adopt the most appropriate solutions to limit its damage. Collaborations between scientists from different institutions and fields once again proved essential to understand and model the eruptive processes, to mitigate hazards and to obtain the best results.

Abstract Using the NEODAAS-Dundee AVHRR receiving station (Scotland), NEODAAS-Plymouth can provide calibrated brightness temperature data to end users or interim users in near-real time. Between 2000 and 2009 these data were used to undertake volcano hot spot detection, reporting and time-average discharge rate dissemination during effusive crises at Mount Etna and Stromboli (Italy). Data were passed via FTP, within an hour of image generation, to the hot spot detection system maintained at Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, USA). Final product generation and quality control were completed manually at HIGP once a day, so as to provide information to onsite monitoring agencies for their incorporation into daily reporting duties to Italian Civil Protection. We here describe the processing and dissemination chain, which was designed so as to provide timely, useable, quality-controlled and relevant information for ‘one voice’ reporting by the responsible monitoring agencies.

Abstract We describe a new volcanic hotspot detection system, named Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity (MIROVA), based on the analysis of infrared data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor (MODIS). MIROVA uses the middle infrared radiation (MIR), measured by MODIS, in order to detect and measure the heat radiation deriving from volcanic activity. The algorithm combines spectral and spatial principles, allowing the detection of heat sources from 1 megawatt (MW) to more than 10 gigawatt (GW). This provides a unique opportunity to: (i) recognize small-scale variations in thermal output that may precede the onset of effusive activity; (ii) track the advance of large lava flows; (iii) estimate lava discharge rates; (iv) identify distinct effusive trends; and, lastly, (v) follow the cooling process of voluminous lava bodies for several months. Here we show the results obtained from data sets spanning 14 years recorded at the Stromboli and Mt Etna volcanoes, Italy, and we investigate the above aspects at these two persistently active volcanoes. Finally, we describe how the algorithm has been implemented within an operational near-real-time processing chain that enables the MIROVA system to provide data and infrared maps within 1–4 h of the satellite overpass.

Abstract The HOTSAT multiplatform system for the analysis of infrared data from satellites provides a framework that allows the detection of volcanic hotspots and an output of their associated radiative power. This multiplatform system can operate on both Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager data. The new version of the system is now implemented on graphics processing units and its interface is available on the internet under restricted access conditions. Combining the estimation of time-varying discharge rates using HOTSAT with the MAGFLOW physics-based model to simulate lava flow paths resulted in the first operational system in which satellite observations drive the modelling of lava flow emplacement. This allows the timely definition of the parameters and maps essential for hazard assessment, including the propagation time of lava flows and the maximum run-out distance. The system was first used in an operational context during the paroxysmal episode at Mt Etna on 12–13 January 2011, when we produced real-time predictions of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows while the eruption was still ongoing. This allowed key at-risk areas to be rapidly and appropriately identified.

Abstract Infrared (IR) satellite-based sensors allow the detection and quantification of volcanic hot spots. Sensors flown on geostationary satellites are particularly helpful in the early warning and continuous tracking of effusive activity. Development of operational monitoring and dissemination systems is essential to achieve the real-time ingestion and processing of IR data for a timely response during volcanic crises. HOTVOLC is a web-based satellite-data-driven monitoring system developed at the Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (Clermont-Ferrand), designed to achieve near-real-time monitoring of volcanic activity using on-site ingestion of geostationary satellite data (e.g. MSG-SEVIRI, MTSAT, GOES-Imager). Here we present the characteristics of the HOTVOLC system for the monitoring of effusive activity. The system comprises two acquisition stations and secure databases (i.e. mirrored archives). The detection of volcanic hot spots uses a contextual algorithm that is based on a modified form of the Normalized Thermal Index (NTI*) and VAST. Raster images and numerical data are available to open-access on a Web-GIS interface. Tests are carried out and presented here, particularly for the 12–13 January 2011 eruption of Mount Etna, to show the capability of the system to provide quantitative information such as lava volume and time-averaged discharge rate. Examples of operational application reveal the ability of the HOTVOLC system to provide timely thermal information about volcanic hot spot activity.

Abstract The use of thematic volcanic hazard maps is essential for policy managers and administrators in land use planning and to determine the best form of action during emergencies. In particular, hazard maps are a key tool in emergency management and are used to describe the threat expected at a certain location in the event of future eruptions. We applied the latest version of the SCIARA lava flow cellular automata model using parallel computing through general purpose graphics processing units technology to derive lava flow hazard maps for Mt Etna, Sicily. The methodology relies on an accurate analysis of the past behaviour of the volcano and is appropriate for land use planning and civil defence applications.

Abstract The MAGFLOW model for lava-flow simulations is based on the cellular automaton (CA) approach, and uses a physical model for the thermal and rheological evolution of the flowing lava. We discuss the potential of MAGFLOW to improve our understanding of the dynamics of lava-flow emplacement and our ability to assess lava-flow hazards. Sensitivity analysis of the input parameters controlling the evolution function of the automaton demonstrates that water content and solidus temperatures are the parameters to which MAGFLOW is most sensitive. Additional tests also indicate that temporal changes in effusion rate strongly influence the accuracy of the predictive modelling of lava-flow paths. The parallel implementation of MAGFLOW on graphic processing units (GPUs) can achieve speed-ups of two orders of magnitude relative to the corresponding serial implementation, providing a lava-flow simulation spanning several days of eruption in just a few minutes. We describe and demonstrate the operation of MAGFLOW using two case studies from Mt Etna: one is a reconstruction of the detailed chronology of the lava-flow emplacement during the 2006 flank eruption; and the other is the production of the lava-flow hazard map of the persistent eruptive activity at the summit craters.

Abstract LavaSIM is a lava -flow simulator to carry out three-dimensional (3D) analysis of solid–liquid two-phase lava flows. Heat transfer between molten lava and solidified crust into the air, water and ground is calculated using radiation equations, so we can simulate not only the lava-flow distribution but also its physical characteristics: for instance, the internal convectional structure. Lava viscosity can be treated as a function of temperature, and is associated with the percentage of crystallization. The stop condition for the lava flow is determined by calculating the minimum spreading thickness, taking into consideration the yield strength. This paper also discusses whether LavaSIM, the deterministic lava-flow simulation, can be applied to basaltic lava flows and allow lava-flow characteristics, such as inundated area, temperature distribution, crust–melt distribution, velocity and pressure field, to be quantitatively evaluated.