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Journal Article

Onset of Aftershocks: Constraints on the Rate‐and‐State Model

Sebastian Hainzl, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas J. van der Elst
Published: 01 October 2024
Seismological Research Letters (2024) 95 (6): 3507–3516.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240176
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Testing Rate‐and‐State Predictions of Aftershock Decay with Distance

Morgan T. Page, Nicholas J. van der Elst, Sebastian Hainzl
Published: 23 September 2024
Seismological Research Letters (2024) 95 (6): 3376–3386.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240179
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The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

Mark D Petersen, M.EERI, Allison M Shumway, Peter M Powers, M.EERI, Edward H Field, M.EERI, Morgan P Moschetti, M.EERI, Kishor S Jaiswal, M.EERI, Kevin R Milner, M.EERI, Sanaz Rezaeian, Arthur D Frankel, M.EERI, Andrea L Llenos, Andrew J Michael, M.EERI, Jason M Altekruse, Sean K Ahdi, M.EERI, Kyle B Withers, Charles S Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Robert E Chase, M.EERI, Leah M Salditch, Nicolas Luco, M.EERI, Kenneth S Rukstales, Julie A Herrick, Demi L Girot, Brad T Aagaard, Adrian M Bender, Michael L Blanpied, Richard W Briggs, Oliver S Boyd, M.EERI, Brandon S Clayton, Christopher B DuRoss, Eileen L Evans, Peter J Haeussler, Alexandra E Hatem, Kirstie L Haynie, Elizabeth H Hearn, Kaj M Johnson, Zachary A Kortum, N Simon Kwong, M.EERI, Andrew J Makdisi, M.EERI, H Benjamin Mason, Daniel E McNamara, Devin F McPhillips, Paul G Okubo, Morgan T Page, Fred F Pollitz, Justin L Rubinstein, Bruce E Shaw, Zheng-Kang Shen, Brian R Shiro, James A Smith, William J Stephenson, Eric M Thompson, Jessica A Thompson Jobe, Erin A Wirth, Robert C Witter
Published: 01 February 2024
Earthquake Spectra (2024) 40 (1): 5–88.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231215428
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The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time‐Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Alexandra E. Hatem, Peter M. Powers, Fred F. Pollitz, Andrea L. Llenos, Yuehua Zeng, Kaj M. Johnson, Bruce E. Shaw, Devin McPhillips, Jessica Thompson Jobe, Allison M. Shumway, Andrew J. Michael, Zheng‐Kang Shen, Eileen L. Evans, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Charles S. Mueller, Arthur D. Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Christopher DuRoss, Richard W. Briggs, Morgan T. Page, Justin L. Rubinstein, Julie A. Herrick
Published: 22 December 2023
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2024) 114 (1): 523–571.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230120
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Fault Roughness at Seismogenic Depths and Links to Earthquake Behavior

Elizabeth S. Cochran, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas J. van der Elst, Zachary E. Ross, Daniel T. Trugman
Published: 17 March 2023
The Seismic Record (2023) 3 (1): 37–47.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0320220043
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Aftershocks Preferentially Occur in Previously Active Areas

Morgan T. Page, Nicholas J. van der Elst
Published: 29 April 2022
The Seismic Record (2022) 2 (2): 100–106.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0320220005
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Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS)

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, William H. Savran, Nicholas van der Elst
Published: 09 September 2021
The Seismic Record (2021) 1 (2): 117–125.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0320210017
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Generalizing the Inversion‐Based PSHA Source Model for an Interconnected Fault System

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page
Published: 17 November 2020
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2021) 111 (1): 371–390.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200219
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More Fault Connectivity Is Needed in Seismic Hazard Analysis

Morgan T. Page
Published: 03 November 2020
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2021) 111 (1): 391–397.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200119
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Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3‐ETAS Model

Kevin R. Milner, Edward H. Field, William H. Savran, Morgan T. Page, Thomas H. Jordan
Published: 04 March 2020
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (3): 1567–1578.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190294
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Statistical Seismology and Communication of the USGS Operational Aftershock Forecasts for the 30 November 2018 M w 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska, Earthquake

Andrew J. Michael, Sara K. McBride, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Michael Barall, Eric Martinez, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Anne M. Wein
Published: 11 December 2019
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (1): 153–173.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190196
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#EarthquakeAdvisory: Exploring Discourse between Government Officials, News Media, and Social Media during the 2016 Bombay Beach Swarm

Sara K. McBride, Andrea L. Llenos, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst
Published: 06 November 2019
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (1): 438–451.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190082
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Updated California Aftershock Parameters

Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst
Published: 05 December 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2019) 90 (1): 262–270.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180240
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Turing‐Style Tests for UCERF3 Synthetic Catalogs

Morgan T. Page, Nicholas J. van der Elst
Published: 13 February 2018
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (2): 729–741.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170223
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Nonparametric Aftershock Forecasts Based on Similar Sequences in the Past

Nicholas J. van der Elst, Morgan T. Page
Published: 20 December 2017
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (1): 145–152.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170155
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A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Edward H. Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn P. Biasi, Tom Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, II, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Karen R. Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximilian J. Werner, Wayne R. Thatcher
Published: 12 July 2017
Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (5): 1259–1267.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170045
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A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Thomas H. Jordan, Andrew J. Michael, Bruce E. Shaw, Maximilian J. Werner
Published: 28 February 2017
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2017) 107 (3): 1049–1081.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160173
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Three Ingredients for Improved Global Aftershock Forecasts: Tectonic Region, Time‐Dependent Catalog Incompleteness, and Intersequence Variability

Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Jeanne Hardebeck, Karen Felzer, Andrew J. Michael
Published: 23 August 2016
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2016) 106 (5): 2290–2301.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160073
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Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Edward H. Field, Glenn P. Biasi, Peter Bird, Timothy E. Dawson, Karen R. Felzer, David D. Jackson, Kaj M. Johnson, Thomas H. Jordan, Christopher Madden, Andrew J. Michael, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, Tom Parsons, Peter M. Powers, Bruce E. Shaw, Wayne R. Thatcher, Ray J. Weldon, II, Yuehua Zeng
Published: 10 March 2015
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2015) 105 (2A): 511–543.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140093
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The UCERF3 Grand Inversion: Solving for the Long‐Term Rate of Ruptures in a Fault System

Morgan T. Page, Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Peter M. Powers
Published: 03 June 2014
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2014) 104 (3): 1181–1204.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130180
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