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Journal Article

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

Mark D Petersen, M.EERI, Allison M Shumway, Peter M Powers, M.EERI, Edward H Field, M.EERI, Morgan P Moschetti, M.EERI, Kishor S Jaiswal, M.EERI, Kevin R Milner, M.EERI, Sanaz Rezaeian, Arthur D Frankel, M.EERI, Andrea L Llenos, Andrew J Michael, M.EERI, Jason M Altekruse, Sean K Ahdi, M.EERI, Kyle B Withers, Charles S Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Robert E Chase, M.EERI, Leah M Salditch, Nicolas Luco, M.EERI, Kenneth S Rukstales, Julie A Herrick, Demi L Girot, Brad T Aagaard, Adrian M Bender, Michael L Blanpied, Richard W Briggs, Oliver S Boyd, M.EERI, Brandon S Clayton, Christopher B DuRoss, Eileen L Evans, Peter J Haeussler, Alexandra E Hatem, Kirstie L Haynie, Elizabeth H Hearn, Kaj M Johnson, Zachary A Kortum, N Simon Kwong, M.EERI, Andrew J Makdisi, M.EERI, H Benjamin Mason, Daniel E McNamara, Devin F McPhillips, Paul G Okubo, Morgan T Page, Fred F Pollitz, Justin L Rubinstein, Bruce E Shaw, Zheng-Kang Shen, Brian R Shiro, James A Smith, William J Stephenson, Eric M Thompson, Jessica A Thompson Jobe, Erin A Wirth, Robert C Witter
Published: 01 February 2024
Earthquake Spectra (2024) 40 (1): 5–88.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231215428
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A Comprehensive Fault‐System Inversion Approach: Methods and Application to NSHM23

Kevin R. Milner, Edward H. Field
Published: 22 December 2023
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2024) 114 (1): 486–522.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230122
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The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time‐Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Alexandra E. Hatem, Peter M. Powers, Fred F. Pollitz, Andrea L. Llenos, Yuehua Zeng, Kaj M. Johnson, Bruce E. Shaw, Devin McPhillips, Jessica Thompson Jobe, Allison M. Shumway, Andrew J. Michael, Zheng‐Kang Shen, Eileen L. Evans, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Charles S. Mueller, Arthur D. Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Christopher DuRoss, Richard W. Briggs, Morgan T. Page, Justin L. Rubinstein, Julie A. Herrick
Published: 22 December 2023
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2024) 114 (1): 523–571.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230120
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Western U.S. Deformation Models for the 2023 Update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Fred F. Pollitz, Eileen L. Evans, Edward H. Field, Alexandra E. Hatem, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Kaj Johnson, Jessica R. Murray, Peter M. Powers, Zheng‐Kang Shen, Crystal Wespestad, Yuehua Zeng
Published: 19 September 2022
Seismological Research Letters (2022) 93 (6): 3068–3086.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220143
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Enumerating Plausible Multifault Ruptures in Complex Fault Systems with Physical Constraints

Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Edward H. Field
Published: 25 May 2022
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2022) 112 (4): 1806–1824.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120210322
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Some Systemic Risks to Progress on Seismic Hazard Assessment

Edward H. Field
Published: 22 December 2021
Seismological Research Letters (2022) 93 (2A): 513–516.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220210268
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The Seismic Hazard Implications of Declustering and Poisson Assumptions Inferred from a Fully Time‐Dependent Model

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Nicolas Luco
Published: 05 October 2021
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2022) 112 (1): 527–537.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120210027
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Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS)

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, William H. Savran, Nicholas van der Elst
Published: 09 September 2021
The Seismic Record (2021) 1 (2): 117–125.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0320210017
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The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed

Mark D Petersen, M.EERI, Allison M Shumway, Peter M Powers, M.EERI, Charles S Mueller, Morgan P Moschetti, M.EERI, Arthur D Frankel, M.EERI, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel E McNamara, Nicolas Luco, M.EERI, Oliver S Boyd, M.EERI, Kenneth S Rukstales, Kishor S Jaiswal, M.EERI, Eric M Thompson, Susan M Hoover, Brandon S Clayton, Edward H Field, M.EERI, Yuehua Zeng
Published: 01 May 2021
Earthquake Spectra (2021) 37 (2): 959–987.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020988016
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Toward Physics‐Based Nonergodic PSHA: A Prototype Fully Deterministic Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Christine A. Goulet, Keith B. Richards‐Dinger, Scott Callaghan, Thomas H. Jordan, James H. Dieterich, Edward H. Field
Published: 05 January 2021
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2021) 111 (2): 898–915.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200216
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Generalizing the Inversion‐Based PSHA Source Model for an Interconnected Fault System

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page
Published: 17 November 2020
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2021) 111 (1): 371–390.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200219
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Assessing the value of removing earthquake-hazard-related epistemic uncertainties, exemplified using average annual loss in California

Edward H Field, M.EERI, Kevin R Milner, M.EERI, Keith A Porter, M.EERI
Published: 01 November 2020
Earthquake Spectra (2020) 36 (4): 1912–1929.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020926185
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Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3‐ETAS Model

Kevin R. Milner, Edward H. Field, William H. Savran, Morgan T. Page, Thomas H. Jordan
Published: 04 March 2020
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (3): 1567–1578.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190294
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The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications

Mark D. Petersen, M.EERI, Allison M. Shumway, Peter M. Powers, M.EERI, Charles S. Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, M.EERI, Arthur D. Frankel, M.EERI, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel E. McNamara, Nico Luco, M.EERI, Oliver S. Boyd, M.EERI, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor S. Jaiswal, M.EERI, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon S. Clayton, Edward H. Field, M.EERI, Yuehua Zeng
Published: 01 February 2020
Earthquake Spectra (2020) 36 (1): 5–41.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293019878199
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Statistical Seismology and Communication of the USGS Operational Aftershock Forecasts for the 30 November 2018 M w 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska, Earthquake

Andrew J. Michael, Sara K. McBride, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Michael Barall, Eric Martinez, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Anne M. Wein
Published: 11 December 2019
Seismological Research Letters (2020) 91 (1): 153–173.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190196
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Relaxing Segmentation on the Wasatch Fault Zone: Impact on Seismic Hazard

Alessandro Valentini, Christopher B. DuRoss, Edward H. Field, Ryan D. Gold, Richard W. Briggs, Francesco Visini, Bruno Pace
Published: 19 November 2019
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2020) 110 (1): 83–109.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120190088
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How Physics‐Based Earthquake Simulators Might Help Improve Earthquake Forecasts

Edward H. Field
Published: 09 January 2019
Seismological Research Letters (2019) 90 (2A): 467–472.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180299
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Improving Earthquake Rupture Forecasts Using California as a Guide

Edward H. Field, Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
Published: 03 October 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (6): 2337–2346.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180151
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Candidate Products for Operational Earthquake Forecasting Illustrated Using the HayWired Planning Scenario, Including One Very Quick (and Not‐So‐Dirty) Hazard‐Map Option

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner
Published: 18 April 2018
Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1420–1434.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170241
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A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Edward H. Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn P. Biasi, Tom Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, II, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Karen R. Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximilian J. Werner, Wayne R. Thatcher
Published: 12 July 2017
Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (5): 1259–1267.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170045
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