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Abstract In this paper, we present a summary of palaeoclimate modelling activities carried out for the mid-Pliocene, and demonstrate how a combined data and modelling approach has led to significant advances in our understanding and ‘retrodiction’ of the last great warm period of the Cenozoic Era. The development and refinement of mid-Pliocene palaeoenvironmental datasets is discussed, as are the steps that have been taken to increase the sophistication of the modelling effort. Initially, the discussion focuses on the use of Atmosphere-only General Circulation Models (AGCMs) and summarizes the results produced by such models. We then consider the importance of incorporating slab-ocean, dynamic ocean, mechanistic and dynamic vegetation models with AGCMs. Recent developments are considered and a strategy for further investigation is presented.
Abstract The Pliocene ( c. 5.3–1.8 Myr BP) was the last epoch of geological time in which global temperatures were generally higher than modern. It is important if we are to understand the dynamics of warm climates. This is particularly true of the interaction of climate and cryosphere, where the Pliocene may represent the first epoch in which ice sheets, at least on Antarctica, were a permanent feature. In this paper, we review the available evidence for the state of ice sheets during the Pliocene as well as previous attempts to model them. We then present new models and sensitivity studies of the mid-Pliocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) and consider the implications for the debate on ice-sheet stability during the Pliocene. These new reconstructions suggest that the mid-Pliocene EAIS was significantly smaller than modern, but the modelled average mid-Pliocene climate is not sufficient to cause the widespread deglaciation suggested by Sirius Group diatom evidence.