Abstract Understanding the behaviour of fluids in hydrothermal systems is a key factor in volcano monitoring. Measuring gas emissions in volcanic areas is strategic for detecting and interpreting precursory signals of variations in volcanic activity. The role of radon as a potential precursor of earthquakes has been extensively debated. However, radon anomalies appear to be better suited to forecast eruptive episodes as we know the loci of volcanic eruptions and we can follow the evolution of volcanic activity. Radon mapping is an effective tool in assessing diffuse and concentrated degassing at the surface. We hereby summarize the in-soil radon emissions collected worldwide and further discuss a collection of data on our key targets. These are closed-conduit and open-conduit volcanoes: Vesuvius (Italy) and La Soufrière (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles), Stromboli (Italy) and Villarrica (Chile), respectively. In all the above volcanoes, faults and fracture systems control radon degassing. Automatic and real-time measurements help us to detect major changes in volcanic activity. We present and discuss the radon time series associated with the last effusive eruption at Stromboli. Spectral analyses reveal diurnal and semi-diurnal cycles being probably modulated by atmospheric variations. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses have been performed by filtering the radon signals from the effects of local environmental parameters. The residuals do not show particular variations or precursory peaks as the gases have been released from this open-conduit volcano before the onset of the effusive phase (7 August 2014). It is finally emphasized that radon is not the sole precursor, and we should also rely on other geochemical and geophysical parameters. In this perspective, we propose a methodological procedure that can contribute to improving volcano surveillance in an attempt to mitigate volcanic risk.

Abstract We describe a new volcanic hotspot detection system, named Middle InfraRed Observation of Volcanic Activity (MIROVA), based on the analysis of infrared data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor (MODIS). MIROVA uses the middle infrared radiation (MIR), measured by MODIS, in order to detect and measure the heat radiation deriving from volcanic activity. The algorithm combines spectral and spatial principles, allowing the detection of heat sources from 1 megawatt (MW) to more than 10 gigawatt (GW). This provides a unique opportunity to: (i) recognize small-scale variations in thermal output that may precede the onset of effusive activity; (ii) track the advance of large lava flows; (iii) estimate lava discharge rates; (iv) identify distinct effusive trends; and, lastly, (v) follow the cooling process of voluminous lava bodies for several months. Here we show the results obtained from data sets spanning 14 years recorded at the Stromboli and Mt Etna volcanoes, Italy, and we investigate the above aspects at these two persistently active volcanoes. Finally, we describe how the algorithm has been implemented within an operational near-real-time processing chain that enables the MIROVA system to provide data and infrared maps within 1–4 h of the satellite overpass.

Abstract RED SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modelling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. During each day, presentations were given reviewing the state of the art in terms of (a) volcano hot spot detection and parameterization, (b) operational satellite-based hot spot detection systems, (c) lava flow modelling and (d) response protocols during effusive crises. At the end of each presentation set, the four groups retreated to discuss and report on requirements for a truly integrated and operational response that satisfactorily combines remote sensors, modellers and responders during an effusive crisis. The results of collating the final reports, and follow-up discussions that have been on-going since the workshop, are given here. We can reduce our discussions to four main findings. (1) Hot spot detection tools are operational and capable of providing effusive eruption onset notice within 15 min. (2) Spectral radiance metrics can also be provided with high degrees of confidence. However, if we are to achieve a truly global system, more local receiving stations need to be installed with hot spot detection and data processing modules running on-site and in real time. (3) Models are operational, but need real-time input of reliable time-averaged discharge rate data and regular updates of digital elevation models if they are to be effective; the latter can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community. (4) Information needs to be provided in an agreed and standard format following an ensemble approach and using models that have been validated and recognized as trustworthy by the responding authorities. All of this requires a sophisticated and centralized data collection, distribution and reporting hub that is based on a philosophy of joint ownership and mutual trust. While the next chapter carries out an exercise to explore the viability of the last point, the detailed recommendations behind these findings are detailed here.

Abstract Using two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaîne des Puys (Auvergne, France), we tested two geographical information systems (GISs) set up to allow loss assessment during an effusive crisis. The first was a local system that drew on all immediately available data for population, land use, communications, utility and building type. The second was an experimental add-on to the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) global warning system maintained by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) that draws information from open-access global data. After defining lava-flow model source terms (vent location, effusion rate, lava chemistry, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity), we ran all available lava-flow emplacement models to produce a projection for the likelihood of impact for all pixels within the GIS. Next, inundation maps and damage reports for impacted zones were produced, with those produced by both the local system and by GDACS being in good agreement. The exercise identified several shortcomings of the systems, but also indicated that the generation of a GDACS-type global response system for effusive crises that uses rapid-response model projections for lava inundation driven by real-time satellite hotspot detection – and open-access datasets – is within the current capabilities of the community.

Abstract Stromboli is a unique open conduit volcano and a natural laboratory for investigating how volatiles migrate and concentrate under dynamic conditions. Fluid phases are involved in magma decompression and pressurization, modulate Strombolian activity and govern magma rise and fragmentation processes. Here, we have revisited the available data on the last two major eruptions at Stromboli volcano and concentrated our analysis on the 2007 eruption. First, we analysed petrological-geochemical data to assess equilibrium conditions by using standard thermobarometry; we then used a grid of selected reactions which involve solid-melt-fluid equilibria to better constrain the P – T regimes that adequately describe our system. Primitive hydrous basaltic melts, reported in literature and preserved as melt inclusions in olivine (with 2.3–3.8 wt% of H 2 O and 890–1590 ppm CO 2 ), are in equilibrium with forsteritic olivine and a diopsidic clinopyroxene at average pressures of 260 (±47) MPa for temperatures approaching 1170 (±17) °C and calculated (mole fraction of CO 2 within the melt) in the range 0.60–0.76. Ca-rich or ultracalcic melts are regarded as the result of decompression along a steep adiabatic and/or isothermal curve. During this process the magma will cross-cut the stability field of diopside and enter the liquidus field. The earlier crystallized diopside is destabilized and reacts with the coexisting liquid phase leading to the formation of ultracalcic melts. Ejected golden pumices (with 2–3 wt% H 2 O) are in equilibrium with Ca-pyroxene, forsteritic olivine and anorthitic plagioclase at 150–220 MPa and temperatures of 1120–1150 °C. Evolved melt inclusions (substantially degassed) in less magnesian olivine ( c. Fo 70 ) of the scorias show average equilibration pressures of 78 (±20) MPa and temperatures of 1138 (±14) °C. In summary, the higher P–T regimes associated with the origin of primitive melt inclusions are representative of the base of the chamber, where the ferromagnesian phases may crystallize and cumulate. The magma with a bulk composition typical of the pumices is stored in the middle and main part of the chamber (likely its axial sector) and these materials are erupted during paroxysmal and, more rarely, major explosions. Finally, more evolved melt inclusions found in the olivine of the scorias are indicative of crystallization within the conduit or its root zone connected to the upper part of the chamber. Pure extensional regimes and recent geophysical data suggest the existence of a prolate ellipsoidal magma chamber below Stromboli. To constrain its volume we estimated the magma volumes associated with SO 2 degassing (during the 2007 major eruption) by applying a refined petrological model that allowed us to estimate the magma fluxes in the subvolcanic region (i.e. the magma flux entering the degassing zone). The long-term trend of this magma flux follows an overall exponential decay, typical of pressurized magmatic systems, and indicates that magma rise was accompanied and followed by slow decompression. This trend was shown to be consistent with release of elastic strain accumulated either by pressurization of the rocks surrounding the magma reservoir, by pressurization of the magma itself or both. By analysing the reservoir elastic response during magma decompression, we found that the current Stromboli magma chamber volume may be adequately constrained to 1–2 km 3 .

We analyzed four distinct effusive episodes at Piton de la Fournaise during the May–July 2003 eruption. We estimated a total erupted volume of lava of ∼2.2 ± 0.3 Mm 3 , by means of portable Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) equipment (Ashtech Zextrem) and an infrared handheld camera (ThermaCAM PM695 PAL). The evolution of the lava field in space and time has been reconstructed by cross-checking the infrared and optical images with field observations. These data allowed us to infer the evolution of effusion rates during the dynamic development of the effusive episodes, hereby named Phases I, II, III, and IV (ranging from 21 ± 3 m 3 /s during Phase I to 0.5 ± 0.1 m 3 /s during Phase IV, with an average eruption rate of 1.2 ± 0.3 m 3 /s). Lavas effused during the first three phases were shelly pahoehoe, slabby pahoehoe, spiney pahoehoe, clinkery 'a'a, and blocky 'a'a. Additionally, we observed direct and “inverse” transition from pahoehoe to 'a'a. This process was not observed during the last phase (Phase IV). This phase was characterized by lower effusion rates associated with the emplacement of a pahoehoe sheet flow. We analyzed the advance of this pahoehoe sheet flow (∼4.2 m/h) by means of longitudinal thermal profiles that exhibited an exponential increase in surface temperature toward the front. Temperature fluctuations at the front were coeval with the advancement of the frontal lobes; they in turn also reflect the onset of minor magma pulses at the vent (ascribed to a gas-piston mechanism). Thermal analysis revealed that the temperature distribution of the lava field is composed of multiple thermal components related to different cooling histories of the exposed lava surfaces. The acquisition of thermal data on the whole lava field, integrated with GPS leveling, is a powerful tool to detect and constrain changes in the effusion rate. Further developments of this methodology may be used in remote monitoring, including satellite infrared image analysis.