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What 25+ years of "Did You Feel It" intensities tell us about shaking in California

Jenna M. Chaffeur, Jessie K. Saunders, Sarah E. Minson, Annemarie S. Baltay, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Susan E. Hough, Vincent Quitoriano, Morgan Page and J. Luke Blair
What 25+ years of "Did You Feel It" intensities tell us about shaking in California
Seismological Research Letters (January 2025) Pre-Issue Publication

Abstract

"When will the Big One happen?" is a question that people often have for earthquake scientists. But while waiting for the "Big One" to occur, people will usually experience frightening or damaging shaking from multiple relatively smaller-magnitude earthquakes. Given this context, it raises the question: "Where does most of the damage come from?" Could smaller, yet more frequent, earthquakes account for the majority of reported impactful shaking? To explore this question, we consider reports of earthquake damage and felt shaking experiences from a catalog of community-collected intensity values from the U.S. Geological Survey's "Did You Feel It?" system. Comparing these intensities to expectations from a ground-motion model, we find that earthquakes of magnitudes smaller than expected are responsible for most reported intensities of community decimal intensities (CDI) 4.5 and above (moderate and higher shaking intensity levels). (Here "expected value" is meant in its mathematical sense of the mean or equivalently median shaking intensity.) We also present a regional analysis of observed earthquake shaking for specific areas, detailing the maximum intensity experienced within a predetermined area. We identify several instances of M < 4.5 events that generated maximum intensities of CDI > 5 in regions in California surrounding the cities of Eureka, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego. Our results motivate the need to include smaller-magnitude earthquakes in communications about earthquake hazard and risk reduction.


ISSN: 0895-0695
EISSN: 1938-2057
Serial Title: Seismological Research Letters
Serial Volume: Pre-Issue Publication
Title: What 25+ years of "Did You Feel It" intensities tell us about shaking in California
Affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States
Published: 20250129
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, El Cerrito, CA, United States
References: 50
Accession Number: 2025-022103
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 1 table, geol. sketch maps
N32°30'00" - N42°00'00", W124°30'00" - W114°15'00"
Secondary Affiliation: California Institute of Technology, Seismological Laboratory, USA, United States
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2025, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 2025

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