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Correlation between strain rate and seismicity in different tectonic settings

Chen Yuxuan and Mian Liu
Correlation between strain rate and seismicity in different tectonic settings
Seismological Research Letters (February 2024) PRE-ISSUE PUBLICATION


Geodetic strain rate characterizes present-day crustal deformation and therefore may be used as a spatial predictor for earthquakes. However, the reported correlation between strain rates and seismicity varies significantly in different places. Here, we systematically study the correlation between strain rate, seismicity, and seismic moment in six regions representing typical plate boundary zones, diffuse plate boundary regions, and continental interiors. We quantify the strain rate-seismicity correlation using a method similar to the Molchan error diagram and area skill scores. We find that the correlation between strain rate and seismicity varies with different tectonic settings that can be characterized by the mean strain rates. Strong correlations are found in typical plate boundary zones where strain rates are high and concentrated at major fault zones, whereas poor or no correlations are found in stable continental interiors with low strain rates. The correlation between strain rate and seismicity is also time dependent: It is stronger in seismically active periods but weaker during periods of relative quiescence. These temporal variations can be useful for hazard assessment.

ISSN: 0895-0695
EISSN: 1938-2057
Serial Title: Seismological Research Letters
Title: Correlation between strain rate and seismicity in different tectonic settings
Affiliation: Wuhan University, School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan, China
Published: 20240202
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, El Cerrito, CA, United States
References: 42
Accession Number: 2024-025127
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 1 table
Secondary Affiliation: University of Missouri, USA, United States
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2024, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 2024
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