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Reflections and some questions about assessing the maximum possible earthquake in the long-exploited Groningen gas field

Charles Vlek
Reflections and some questions about assessing the maximum possible earthquake in the long-exploited Groningen gas field
Seismological Research Letters (August 2023) 94 (5): 2469-2478

Abstract

This article is inspired by an official expert reassessment (September 2022), for the next several decades, of the maximum possible earthquake magnitude, M (sub max) , induced by sixty years of extraction from the rich Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. Basic considerations, advisory inputs, and the assessment of M (sub max) are briefly reviewed. Comments and questions are given on the range and weights of possible M (sub max) values, and on probabilities, "weights", as expert degrees of belief. It is argued that plausible shifts in conditional beliefs (e.g., 100% rather than 90% induced) might have led to a lower future maximum-magnitude range (3.5< or =M (sub max) < or =5.5, with average 4.2) than the reported 4.0< or =M (sub max) < or =6.5 with weighted-average 4.6. As a possible event, M (sub max) should have a nonzero probability that (seismo) logically should go down as M (sub max) goes up. Given that M (sub max) weights assigned are based on expert beliefs, are assessors willing to bet-substantially-on the outcome of an M (sub max) the probability of which is being estimated? For the Groningen field, the assumption of a stationary seismic source and M (sub max) may be disputed. Instead, it is proposed that an eventually observable M (sub max) must be related to total-cumulative extraction since 1963. Hence, after Groningen gas extraction has ended in October 2023, M (sub max) will rapidly decrease. Unfortunately missing is a sensitivity analysis to seize the practical meaning of an (decreasing) M (sub max) distribution, for example, for ground motions, seismic risk (including residents' anxiety), and possible building reinforcement. Such implications bolster the requirement that seismic hazard assessment be thoroughly designed, well understood, and clearly communicated.


ISSN: 0895-0695
EISSN: 1938-2057
Serial Title: Seismological Research Letters
Serial Volume: 94
Serial Issue: 5
Title: Reflections and some questions about assessing the maximum possible earthquake in the long-exploited Groningen gas field
Author(s): Vlek, Charles
Affiliation: University of Groningen, Department of Behavioral and Social Sciences, Groningen, Netherlands
Pages: 2469-2478
Published: 20230801
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, El Cerrito, CA, United States
References: 55
Accession Number: 2023-053880
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 4 tables
N53°04'60" - N54°00'00", E06°19'60" - E07°04'60"
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2024, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 202333
Program Name: SDG 11Sustainable Cities and Communities
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