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Magnitude and slip scaling relations for fault-based seismic hazard

Bruce E. Shaw
Magnitude and slip scaling relations for fault-based seismic hazard
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (March 2023) 113 (3): 924-947

Abstract

Scaling relations play an important role in fault-based seismic hazard estimates. Scaling relations impact estimates of the sizes and rate for a given fault area. Here, we examine which relations are the most useful for these estimates and issues that arise. These include the depth of large event ruptures, transient deepening of seismicity following large events, difficulties in using classical continuum exponent fits, and the importance of large event asymptotics. A new analysis of land-based data calls into question nonspecific exponent fitting, which is a standard practice. We show a dependence on the lower and upper cut-off magnitudes in the data in the best-fitting slope parameter relating magnitude to log area with this approach. We show as well a dependence on assumed data uncertainties. These sensitivities make using this quite standard approach very problematic. Based on this evidence and other factors, we propose recommendations for the minimal branch sets, which preserve epistemic uncertainty for use in fault-based seismic hazard estimates.


ISSN: 0037-1106
EISSN: 1943-3573
Serial Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Serial Volume: 113
Serial Issue: 3
Title: Magnitude and slip scaling relations for fault-based seismic hazard
Author(s): Shaw, Bruce E.
Affiliation: Lahmont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
Pages: 924-947
Published: 20230303
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, Berkeley, CA, United States
References: 39
Accession Number: 2023-027009
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Annotation: Includes appendices
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 1 table
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2024, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 202318
Program Name: SDG 11Sustainable Cities and Communities
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