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Revised earthquake recurrence intervals in California, U.S.A.; new paleoseismic sites and application of event likelihoods

Devin McPhillips
Revised earthquake recurrence intervals in California, U.S.A.; new paleoseismic sites and application of event likelihoods
Seismological Research Letters (August 2022) 93 (6): 3009-3023

Abstract

Recurrence intervals for ground rupturing earthquakes are critical data for assessing seismic hazard. Recurrence intervals are presented here for 38 paleoseismic sites in California. Eleven of these include new or updated data; the remainder use data previously included in the Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3). The methods and results are consistent with UCERF3. In addition, revised recurrence intervals are presented at every site. The revised recurrence intervals incorporate uncertainty in the interpretation of paleoseismic evidence, which is expressed as event likelihood. Event likelihood is the probability that the evidence has been correctly interpreted as a unique earthquake. Event likelihoods are estimated here for 85 inferred past earthquakes at eight paleoseismic sites in California, using a single, consistent methodology. The average event likelihood is 0.85. The revised recurrence intervals are 16% longer, on average, than conventional estimates, and their confidence intervals are disproportionately wider. These recurrence intervals are suitable for inclusion in a "grand inversion" rupture forecast, and they may be important for addressing a systematic misfit in the UCERF3 grand inversion. The revised recurrence intervals may also be important for assessing the unusually long earthquake hiatus in California. Other applications may not need to consider event likelihoods because the effects are small relative to typical uncertainties.


ISSN: 0895-0695
EISSN: 1938-2057
Serial Title: Seismological Research Letters
Serial Volume: 93
Serial Issue: 6
Title: Revised earthquake recurrence intervals in California, U.S.A.; new paleoseismic sites and application of event likelihoods
Author(s): McPhillips, Devin
Affiliation: U. S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, CA, United States
Pages: 3009-3023
Published: 20220831
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, El Cerrito, CA, United States
References: 70
Accession Number: 2022-052423
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Annotation: Part of a special issue entitled Deformation models of fault slip for the 2023 update
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 5 tables
N33°30'00" - N33°49'60", W116°30'00" - W116°00'00"
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2022, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 202239
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