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A tectonophysical model of the Baikal seismic zone; testing and implications for medium-term earthquake prediction

S. I. Sherman, S. V. Lysak and E. A. Gorbunova
A tectonophysical model of the Baikal seismic zone; testing and implications for medium-term earthquake prediction
Russian Geology and Geophysics (April 2012) 53 (4): 392-405

Abstract

The first tectonophysical model of the Baikal seismic zone represents a separate complex region of the lithosphere. It has a pinnate structure with a backbone belt of current deformation, which is a concentrator of largest earthquakes, and branching, repeatedly reactivated large and small faults. In its vertical section, the seismic zone is tree-like, the stem and the branches being faults of different size ranks which can generate earthquakes when reactivated. The real-time short-period fault motions and the respective seismicity occurring at a certain time and in certain places are triggered by strain waves, which disturb the metastable state of the faulted lithosphere subject to regional stress. The modeling work includes developing general requirements for tectonophysical models of continental rifts and special methods for identifying the faults that become active within short historic time spans, as well as techniques for locating potential events in space and time in specific active faults. The methods and model testing for medium-term earthquake prediction are described by the example of the well-documented Baikal seismic zone, which is the most active part of the Baikal rift system. The tectonophysical model for the Baikal zone is statistically supported by field data, and this allows estimating the velocities and periods of strain waves for different zone segments and faults, with implications for nearest-future earthquake prediction.


ISSN: 1068-7971
Serial Title: Russian Geology and Geophysics
Serial Volume: 53
Serial Issue: 4
Title: A tectonophysical model of the Baikal seismic zone; testing and implications for medium-term earthquake prediction
Affiliation: Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of the Earth's Crust, Irkutsk, Russian Federation
Pages: 392-405
Published: 201204
Text Language: English
Publisher: Allerton Press, New York, NY, United States
References: 62
Accession Number: 2021-044954
Categories: Structural geologySeismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 2 tables, sketch maps
N48°00'00" - N60°00'00", E96°00'00" - E122°00'00"
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2021, American Geosciences Institute. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 2021
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