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The case for using mean seismic hazard

Robin K. McGuire, C. Allin Cornell and Gabriel R. Toro
The case for using mean seismic hazard
Earthquake Spectra (August 2005) 21 (3): 879-886


Complete probabilistic seismic hazard analyses incorporate epistemic uncertainties in assumptions, models, and parameters, and lead to a distribution of annual frequency of exceedance versus ground motion amplitude (the "seismic hazard"). For decision making, if a single representation of the seismic hazard is required, it is always preferable to use the mean of this distribution, rather than some other representation, such as a particular fractile. Use of the mean is consistent with modern interpretations of probability and with precedents of safety goals and cost-benefit analysis.

ISSN: 8755-2930
EISSN: 1944-8201
Serial Title: Earthquake Spectra
Serial Volume: 21
Serial Issue: 3
Title: The case for using mean seismic hazard
Affiliation: Risk Engineering, Boulder, CO, United States
Pages: 879-886
Published: 200508
Text Language: English
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Berkeley, CA, United States
References: 23
Accession Number: 2021-011076
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Secondary Affiliation: Stanford University, USA, United States
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2021, American Geosciences Institute.
Update Code: 2021
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