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GEOREF RECORD

The case for using mean seismic hazard

Robin K. McGuire, C. Allin Cornell and Gabriel R. Toro
The case for using mean seismic hazard
Earthquake Spectra (August 2005) 21 (3): 879-886

Abstract

Complete probabilistic seismic hazard analyses incorporate epistemic uncertainties in assumptions, models, and parameters, and lead to a distribution of annual frequency of exceedance versus ground motion amplitude (the "seismic hazard"). For decision making, if a single representation of the seismic hazard is required, it is always preferable to use the mean of this distribution, rather than some other representation, such as a particular fractile. Use of the mean is consistent with modern interpretations of probability and with precedents of safety goals and cost-benefit analysis.


ISSN: 8755-2930
EISSN: 1944-8201
Serial Title: Earthquake Spectra
Serial Volume: 21
Serial Issue: 3
Title: The case for using mean seismic hazard
Affiliation: Risk Engineering, Boulder, CO, United States
Pages: 879-886
Published: 200508
Text Language: English
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Berkeley, CA, United States
References: 23
Accession Number: 2021-011076
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Secondary Affiliation: Stanford University, USA, United States
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2021, American Geosciences Institute.
Update Code: 2021
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