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Hazard disaggregation and record selection for fragility analysis and earthquake loss estimation

Luis Sousa, Mario Marques, Vitor Silva and Humberto Varum
Hazard disaggregation and record selection for fragility analysis and earthquake loss estimation
Earthquake Spectra (May 2017) 33 (2): 529-549

Abstract

Economic losses and collapse probability are critical measures for evaluating the earthquake risk of existing buildings. In this context, this study sheds light on several problems and limitations in current practice of hazard-consistent ground-motion selection and fragility analysis, focusing on the impact that (commonly assumed) approximations in disaggregation outputs have on the aforementioned risk metrics, as opposed to an exact solution. These issues are investigated for several building classes, seismicity models and ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), for a site in the city of Lisbon (Portugal). It is observed that only an exact (i.e., rupture-by-rupture) disaggregation can lead to satisfactory results in terms of accuracy, when limit state criteria are not structure-specific. On the other hand, an approximate method is proposed, which still leads to statistically valid results regardless of the chosen structural class, seismicity model or GMPE.


ISSN: 8755-2930
EISSN: 1944-8201
Serial Title: Earthquake Spectra
Serial Volume: 33
Serial Issue: 2
Title: Hazard disaggregation and record selection for fragility analysis and earthquake loss estimation
Affiliation: University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
Pages: 529-549
Published: 201705
Text Language: English
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Berkeley, CA, United States
References: 34
Accession Number: 2021-009878
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 2 tables
N38°43'60" - N38°43'60", W09°07'60" - W09°07'60"
Secondary Affiliation: University of Aveiro, PRT, Portugal
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2021, American Geosciences Institute. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 202103
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