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A SSHAC Level 3 probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for a new-build nuclear site in South Africa

Julian J. Bommer, Kevin J. Coppersmith, Ryan T. Coppersmith, Kathryn L. Hanson, Azangi Mangongolo, Johann Neveling, Ellen M. Rathje, Adrian Rodriguez-Marek, Frank Scherbaum, Refilwe Shelembe, Peter J. Stafford and Fleur O. Strasser
A SSHAC Level 3 probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for a new-build nuclear site in South Africa
Earthquake Spectra (May 2015) 31 (2): 661-698


A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculated using measured shear-wave velocity profiles.

ISSN: 8755-2930
EISSN: 1944-8201
Serial Title: Earthquake Spectra
Serial Volume: 31
Serial Issue: 2
Title: A SSHAC Level 3 probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for a new-build nuclear site in South Africa
Affiliation: Imperial College London, Civil & Environmental Engineering, London, United Kingdom
Pages: 661-698
Published: 201505
Text Language: English
Publisher: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Berkeley, CA, United States
References: 74
Accession Number: 2021-004699
Categories: SeismologyEngineering geology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 2 tables, geol. sketch maps
S34°10'00" - S30°04'60", E22°45'00" - E30°15'00"
Secondary Affiliation: Coppersmith Consulting, Walnut Creek, CA, USA, United StatesAmec Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, Oakland, CA, USA, United StatesCouncil for Geoscience, Pretoria, ZAF, South AfricaUniversity of Texas Austin, Department of Civil, Architectural & Environmental Engineering, Austin, TX, USA, United StatesVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Blacksburg, VA, USA, United StatesUniversity of Potsdam, Institute of Earth & Environmental Science, Potsdam-Golm, DEU, Germany
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2021, American Geosciences Institute.
Update Code: 202102
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