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Short-term probabilistic hazard assessment in regions of induced seismicity

Ganyu Teng and Jack W. Baker
Short-term probabilistic hazard assessment in regions of induced seismicity
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (July 2020) Pre-Issue Publication

Abstract

This project introduces short-term hazard assessment frameworks for regions with induced seismicity. The short-term hazard is the hazard induced during the injection for hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes. For wastewater-disposal-induced earthquakes, it is the hazard within a few days after an observed earthquake. In West Texas, hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes cluster around the injection activities, and the earthquake occurrence varies greatly in time and space. We develop a method to estimate the hazard level at the production site during the injection, based on past injection and earthquake records. The results suggest that the injection volume has a negligible effect on short-term earthquake occurrence in this case, because injection volumes per well fall within a relatively narrow range, whereas the regional variations in seismic productivity of wells and b-values are important. The framework could be easily modified for implementation in other regions with hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes. We then compare the framework with wastewater-disposal-induced earthquakes in Oklahoma-Kansas and natural earthquakes in California. We found that drivers of short-term seismic hazard differ for the three cases. In West Texas, clustered earthquakes dominate seismic hazards near production sites. However, for Oklahoma-Kansas and California, the short-term earthquake occurrence after an observed mainshock could be well described by the mainshock-aftershock sequence. For Stillwater in Oklahoma, aftershocks contribute less to the hazard than San Francisco in California, due to the high Poissonian mainshock rate. For the rate of exceeding a modified Mercalli intensity of 3 within 7 days after an M 4 earthquake, the aftershock sequence from natural earthquakes contributed 85% of the hazard level, whereas the aftershock contribution was only 60% for induced earthquakes in Oklahoma. Although different models were implemented for hazard calculations in regions with hydraulic fracturing versus wastewater injection, injection activities could be drivers of short-term hazard in both cases.


ISSN: 0037-1106
EISSN: 1943-3573
Coden: BSSAAP
Serial Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Serial Volume: Pre-Issue Publication
Title: Short-term probabilistic hazard assessment in regions of induced seismicity
Affiliation: Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
Published: 20200714
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, Berkeley, CA, United States
References: 36
Accession Number: 2020-070775
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 3 tables, sketch maps
N34°00'00" - N38°00'00", W100°00'00" - W96°00'00"
N36°00'00" - N40°00'00", W124°00'00" - W120°00'00"
N31°00'00" - N31°30'00", W104°00'00" - W103°00'00"
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2020, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 202020
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