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Implementation of a smoothed-seismicity algorithm in Monte Carlo PSHA software EqHaz and implications for localization of hazard in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

Karen Assatourians and Gail M. Atkinson
Implementation of a smoothed-seismicity algorithm in Monte Carlo PSHA software EqHaz and implications for localization of hazard in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin
Seismological Research Letters (April 2019) 90 (3): 1407-1419

Abstract

We introduce an enhancement to our Monte Carlo software for performing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (EqHaz), which enables a smoothed-seismicity option, similar in concept to that used by the U.S. Geological Survey in its national seismic hazard mapping. Under the smoothed-seismicity option, the EqHaz catalog simulator uses the geometry and seismicity parameters of the areal sources, along with the catalog of recorded earthquakes and their associated magnitude-completeness data, to mimic the clustering trends seen in historic seismicity catalogs. We use an example application from the western Canada sedimentary basin to show that in cases when clustering of events is pronounced, a 2% in 50 yr ground-motion amplitudes for the smoothed-seismicity option may be up to an order of magnitude higher (or lower) in some locations than would be estimated under the uniform-seismicity approach. If the stationarity of clustering is unknown, hazard assessment should weight the ground motions from the two approaches, according to the perceived likelihood that each approach will represent future seismicity trends.


ISSN: 0895-0695
EISSN: 1938-2057
Serial Title: Seismological Research Letters
Serial Volume: 90
Serial Issue: 3
Title: Implementation of a smoothed-seismicity algorithm in Monte Carlo PSHA software EqHaz and implications for localization of hazard in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin
Affiliation: Western University, Department of Earth Sciences, London, ON, Canada
Pages: 1407-1419
Published: 20190410
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, El Cerrito, CA, United States
References: 24
Accession Number: 2019-038046
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 2 tables, sketch maps
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2020, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 201920
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