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The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability; achievements and priorities

Danijel Schorlemmer, Maximilian J. Werner, Warner Marzocchi, Thomas H. Jordan, Yosihiko Ogata, David D. Jackson, Sum Mak, David A. Rhoades, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Naoshi Hirata, Maria Liukis, Philip J. Maechling, Anne Strader, Matteo Taroni, Stefan Wiemer, Jeremy D. Zechar and Jiancang Zhuang
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability; achievements and priorities
Seismological Research Letters (June 2018) 89 (4): 1305-1313


The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP's goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at a global scale and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new and, sometimes, surprising insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.

ISSN: 0895-0695
EISSN: 1938-2057
Serial Title: Seismological Research Letters
Serial Volume: 89
Serial Issue: 4
Title: The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability; achievements and priorities
Affiliation: German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Pages: 1305-1313
Published: 20180613
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, El Cerrito, CA, United States
References: 95
Accession Number: 2018-057721
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Annotation: Focus section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP); new results and future directions, edited by Michael, A. J., and Werner, M. J.
Illustration Description: illus. incl. sketch map
Secondary Affiliation: University of Bristol, GBR, United KingdomIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, ITA, ItalyUniversity of Southern California, USA, United StatesInstitute of Statistical Mathematics, JPN, JapanUniversity of California at Los Angeles, USA, United StatesGNS Science, NZL, New ZealandUniversity of Tokyo, JPN, JapanJet Propulsion Laboratory, USA, United StatesEidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zuerich, CHE, SwitzerlandAxis, CHE, Switzerland
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2019, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 201831
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