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The forecasting skill of physics-based seismicity models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence

Camilla Cattania, Maximilian J. Werner, Warner Marzocchi, Sebastian Hainzl, David A. Rhoades, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Maria Liukis, William Savran, Annemarie Christophersen, Agnes Helmstetter, Abigail Jimenez, Sandy Steacy and Thomas H. Jordan
The forecasting skill of physics-based seismicity models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence
Seismological Research Letters (June 2018) 89 (4): 1238-1250

Abstract

The static coulomb stress hypothesis is a widely known physical mechanism for earthquake triggering and thus a prime candidate for physics-based operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, the forecast skill of coulomb-based seismicity models remains controversial, especially compared with empirical statistical models. A previous evaluation by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) concluded that a suite of coulomb-based seismicity models were less informative than empirical models during the aftershock sequence of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake. Recently, a new generation of coulomb-based and coulomb/statistical hybrid models were developed that account better for uncertainties and secondary stress sources. Here, we report on the performance of this new suite of models compared with empirical epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence. Comprising the 2010 M 7.1 Darfield earthquake and three subsequent M> or =5.9 shocks (including the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake), this sequence provides a wealth of data (394 M> or =3.95 shocks). We assessed models over multiple forecast horizons (1 day, 1 month, and 1 yr, updated after M> or =5.9 shocks). The results demonstrate substantial improvements in the coulomb-based models. Purely physics-based models have a performance comparable to the ETAS model, and the two coulomb/statistical hybrids perform better or similar to the corresponding statistical model. On the other hand, an ETAS model with anisotropic (fault-based) aftershock zones is just as informative. These results provide encouraging evidence for the predictive power of coulomb-based models. To assist with model development, we identify discrepancies between forecasts and observations.


ISSN: 0895-0695
EISSN: 1938-2057
Serial Title: Seismological Research Letters
Serial Volume: 89
Serial Issue: 4
Title: The forecasting skill of physics-based seismicity models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence
Affiliation: German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
Pages: 1238-1250
Published: 20180613
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, El Cerrito, CA, United States
References: 40
Accession Number: 2018-057720
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Annotation: Focus section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP); new results and future directions, edited by Michael, A. J., and Werner, M. J.
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 2 tables, sketch map
S44°00'00" - S43°00'00", E172°00'00" - E173°00'00"
Secondary Affiliation: University of Bristol, GBR, United KingdomInstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, ITA, ItalyGNS Science, NZL, New ZealandUniversity of Southern California, USA, United StatesUniversity of Grenoble, FRA, FranceUniversidad de Granada, ESP, SpainUniversity of Adelaide, AUS, Australia
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2019, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 201831
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