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A synoptic view of the third uniform California earthquake rupture forecast (UCERF3)

Edward H. Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn P. Biasi, Tom Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Karen R. Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximilian J. Werner and Wayne R. Thatcher
A synoptic view of the third uniform California earthquake rupture forecast (UCERF3)
Seismological Research Letters (September 2017) 88 (5): 1259-1267


Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake-producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long-term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short-term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake-clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self-consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short-term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short-term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault-based models: long-term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg-Richter scaling, and short-term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.

ISSN: 0895-0695
EISSN: 1938-2057
Serial Title: Seismological Research Letters
Serial Volume: 88
Serial Issue: 5
Title: A synoptic view of the third uniform California earthquake rupture forecast (UCERF3)
Affiliation: U. S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, Denver, CO, United States
Pages: 1259-1267
Published: 201709
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, El Cerrito, CA, United States
References: 39
Accession Number: 2018-023123
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. sketch maps
N32°30'00" - N42°00'00", W124°30'00" - W114°15'00"
Secondary Affiliation: University of Southern California, USA, United StatesColumbia University, USA, United StatesCalifornia Geological Survey, USA, United StatesUniversity of Nevada at Reno, USA, United StatesUniversity of Oregon, USA, United StatesIndiana University, USA, United StatesOregon State University, USA, United StatesArizona State University, USA, United StatesUniversity of Bristol, GBR, United Kingdom
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2018, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 201806
Program Name: USGSOPNon-USGS publications with USGS authors
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