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A spatiotemporal clustering model for the third uniform California earthquake rupture forecast (UCERF3-ETAS); toward an operational earthquake forecast

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Jeanne Hardebeck, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Thomas H. Jordan, Andrew J. Michael, Bruce E. Shaw and Maximilian J. Werner
A spatiotemporal clustering model for the third uniform California earthquake rupture forecast (UCERF3-ETAS); toward an operational earthquake forecast (in AGU 2016 fall meeting, Anonymous)
American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting (December 2016) 107 (3): 1049-1081

Abstract

We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component to the previously published time-independent and long-term time-dependent forecasts. This combined model, referred to as UCERF3-ETAS, collectively represents a relaxation of segmentation assumptions, the inclusion of multi-fault ruptures, an elastic-rebound model for fault-based ruptures, and a state-of-the-art spatiotemporal clustering component. It also represents an attempt to merge fault-based forecasts with statistical seismology models, such that information on fault proximity, activity rate, and time since last event are considered in OEF. We describe several unanticipated challenges that were encountered, including a need for elastic rebound and characteristic magnitude-frequency distributions on faults, both of which are required to get realistic triggering behavior. UCERF3-ETAS produces synthetic catalogs of M> or =2.5 events, conditioned on any prior M> or =2.5 events that are input to the model. We evaluate results with respect to both long-term (1,000-year) simulations, as well as for 10-year time periods following a variety of hypothetical scenario main shocks. While the results are very plausible, they are not always consistent with the simple notion that triggering probabilities should be greater if a main shock is located near a fault. Important factors include whether the magnitude-frequency distributions near faults includes a significant characteristic earthquake component, as well as whether large triggered events can nucleate from within the rupture zone of the main shock. Because UCERF3-ETAS has many sources of uncertainty, as will any subsequent version or competing model, potential usefulness needs to be considered in the context of actual applications.


Coden: #07548
Serial Title: American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting
Serial Volume: 107
Serial Issue: 3
Title: A spatiotemporal clustering model for the third uniform California earthquake rupture forecast (UCERF3-ETAS); toward an operational earthquake forecast
Title: AGU 2016 fall meeting
Affiliation: U. S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO, United States
Pages: 1049-1081
Published: 201612
Text Language: English
Publisher: American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, United States
Meeting name: American Geophysical Union 2016 fall meeting
Meeting location: San Francisco, CA, USA, United States
Meeting date: 20161212Dec. 12-16, 2016
Summary: Y
Accession Number: 2017-043716
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial Conference document
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Secondary Affiliation: University of Southern California, USA, United StatesLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, USA, United StatesSouthern California Earthquake Center, USA, United StatesPrinceton University, USA, United States
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2018, American Geosciences Institute. Reference includes data supplied by, and/or abstract, Copyright, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, United States
Update Code: 201724
Program Name: USGSOPNon-USGS publications with USGS authors
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