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Analysis of seismic-driven instability of Mt. Nuovo in the Ischia Island, Italy

Maria Ausilia Paparo and Stefano Tinti
Analysis of seismic-driven instability of Mt. Nuovo in the Ischia Island, Italy
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (April 2017) 107 (2): 750-759


Ischia is a volcanic island located at the margin of the Gulf of Naples in the southeastern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy. In this article, we investigate the stability of the deep-seated block known as Mt. Nuovo in the northwestern flank of the Mt. Epomeo volcano under a combined gravitational and seismic load. Mt. Nuovo is bounded by a number of active seismic faults and is placed close to the epicentral area of the 1883 Casamicciola earthquake (I (sub MCS) = X, M (sub w) 5.8), that is, the largest shock occurring in the island in historical times. We explore the hypothesis that a Casamicciola-like earthquake might occur with an epicenter in the Mt. Nuovo block area. Using relationships between maximum seismic intensity and peak ground acceleration found in the literature as well as a new relationship derived specifically for this study, we apply the minimum lithostatic deviation method, which is a variant of the limit-equilibrium method, to assess the stability of the block. The main finding is that Mt. Nuovo would be mobilized if such an earthquake took place on a fault very close to the block, which would give rise to a catastrophic mass failure and to a disastrous tsunami. This calls for the need of continuous monitoring of the volcano seismicity and deformation pattern.

ISSN: 0037-1106
EISSN: 1943-3573
Serial Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Serial Volume: 107
Serial Issue: 2
Title: Analysis of seismic-driven instability of Mt. Nuovo in the Ischia Island, Italy
Affiliation: University of Bologna, Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Bologna, Italy
Pages: 750-759
Published: 201704
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, Berkeley, CA, United States
References: 56
Accession Number: 2017-037579
Categories: SeismologyEnvironmental geology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. geol. sketch map
N40°30'00" - N41°00'00", E133°00'00" - E140°00'00"
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2017, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 201721
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