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Probabilistic assessment of potential fault slip related to injection-induced earthquakes; application to north-central Oklahoma, USA

F. Rall Walsh and Mark D. Zoback
Probabilistic assessment of potential fault slip related to injection-induced earthquakes; application to north-central Oklahoma, USA
Geology (Boulder) (December 2016) 44 (12): 991-994

Abstract

We utilize quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to calculate the conditional probability of slip on mapped faults in response to injection-related increases in pore pressure in north-central Oklahoma (USA) where widespread injection of produced saltwater has triggered thousands of small to medium-sized earthquakes in the past 7 yr. The conditional probability incorporates the uncertainty in each Mohr-Coulomb parameter (stress tensor, pore pressure, coefficient of friction, and fault orientation) through QRA. The result is a cumulative distribution function of the pore pressure required to cause slip on each fault segment. The results can be used to assess the probability of induced slip on a known fault from a given injection-related pore pressure increase. After dividing north-central Oklahoma into six study areas, we invert earthquake focal plane mechanisms in each area to constrain the orientation and relative magnitude of the principal stresses. The QRA identifies the potential for slip on the fault that produced the M 5.6 Prague earthquake in 2011 and the northeastern extension of a mapped fault associated with the M 5.1 Fairview earthquake sequence that occurred in early 2016, and, had the 289 degrees -striking fault of the September 2016 M 5.8 Pawnee event been mapped, it would have been identified as potentially active.


ISSN: 0091-7613
EISSN: 1943-2682
Coden: GLGYBA
Serial Title: Geology (Boulder)
Serial Volume: 44
Serial Issue: 12
Title: Probabilistic assessment of potential fault slip related to injection-induced earthquakes; application to north-central Oklahoma, USA
Affiliation: Stanford University, Department of Geophysics, Stanford, CA, United States
Pages: 991-994
Published: 201612
Text Language: English
Publisher: Geological Society of America (GSA), Boulder, CO, United States
References: 20
Accession Number: 2017-005865
Categories: Environmental geologySeismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Annotation: GSA Data Repository item 2016334
Illustration Description: illus. incl. geol. sketch maps
N33°34'60" - N37°00'00", W103°00'00" - W94°25'00"
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2017, American Geosciences Institute. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States. Reference includes data supplied by the Geological Society of America, Boulder, CO, United States
Update Code: 201705
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