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About knowledge and responsibility in probabilistic seismic risk management

Pasquale Erto, Massimiliano Giorgio and Iunio Iervolino
About knowledge and responsibility in probabilistic seismic risk management
Seismological Research Letters (September 2016) 87 (5): 1161-1166

Abstract

In seismic risk management, apart from assessment, it is also necessary to develop decision-making strategies that are based on evaluating the probability of the occurrence of earthquakes, their consequences, and the effect of possible mitigation actions. There is a close connection between the knowledge level of the analyst and the resulting probabilistic evaluations, which should be considered correct if they incorporate all available information. Knowledge, probability, and loss are the key concepts in a state-of-the-art approach to risk estimation and management. This article, after reviewing the concepts of risk-based decision making and the possible interpretations of probability, discusses the importance of entrusting seismic risk assessment to experts on the phenomenon who are also knowledgeable regarding probability theory, and how these experts should combine their expert knowledge with probability theory, which is related to the responsibility of the seismic risk analyst.


ISSN: 0895-0695
EISSN: 1938-2057
Serial Title: Seismological Research Letters
Serial Volume: 87
Serial Issue: 5
Title: About knowledge and responsibility in probabilistic seismic risk management
Affiliation: Universita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Dipartmento di Ingegneria Industriale, Naples, Italy
Pages: 1161-1166
Published: 201609
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, El Cerrito, CA, United States
References: 9
Accession Number: 2016-083535
Categories: SeismologyEnvironmental geology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2017, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 201640
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