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Ground-motion prediction equation for small-to-moderate events at short hypocentral distances, with application to induced-seismicity hazards

Gail M. Atkinson
Ground-motion prediction equation for small-to-moderate events at short hypocentral distances, with application to induced-seismicity hazards
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (April 2015) 105 (2A): 981-992

Abstract

The evaluation of seismic hazard from induced seismicity requires the development of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that are tuned to the key magnitude-distance range for such applications. I use events of M: 3-6 at hypocentral distances less than 40 km, drawn from the Next Generation Attenuation-West 2 (NGA-West 2) database, to develop a GMPE that accounts correctly for point-source scaling in both magnitude and distance space for such events. The developed GMPE is in demonstrable agreement with the NGA-West 2 database and with the predictions of a stochastic point-source simulation model. The database is sparse at close distances, implying epistemic uncertainty of as much as a factor of 2 in ground-motion amplitudes within 10 km of the hypocenter. An important conclusion from this study is that the ground-motion amplitudes for moderate induced events could be much larger near the epicenter than predicted by most of the NGA-West 2 GMPEs. The potential for large motions is a consequence of the shallow depth of induced events, which places the earthquake fault only a short distance beneath the epicenter.


ISSN: 0037-1106
EISSN: 1943-3573
Coden: BSSAAP
Serial Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Serial Volume: 105
Serial Issue: 2A
Title: Ground-motion prediction equation for small-to-moderate events at short hypocentral distances, with application to induced-seismicity hazards
Author(s): Atkinson, Gail M.
Affiliation: Western University, Department of Earth Sciences, London, ON, Canada
Pages: 981-992
Published: 201504
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, Berkeley, CA, United States
References: 30
Accession Number: 2015-058260
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 2 tables
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2017, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 201526
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