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Test of goodness of the NGA ground-motion equations to predict the strong motions of the 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan dual earthquakes in northwestern Iran

Mehdi Mousavi, Hamid Zafarani, Sahar Rahpeyma and Alireza Azarbakht
Test of goodness of the NGA ground-motion equations to predict the strong motions of the 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan dual earthquakes in northwestern Iran
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (October 2014) 104 (5): 2512-2528

Abstract

In the first part of this study, a set of 87 ground-motion records, with closest distance to the rupture plane (R (sub rup) ) less than 200 km and averaged shear-wave velocity over the top 30 m of the subsurface (V (sub S30) ) between 175 and 1400 m/s, recorded during the 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan dual earthquakes (M (sub w1) 6.4, M (sub w2) 6.3) were taken into account to examine the predictive capabilities of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) via a set of comparative analyses and tests. The first-applied method to assess the performance of the NGA GMPEs is based on the intraevent residual analysis. The primary database (i.e., 87 records) was also used to develop an event-specific GMPE in the case of the Ahar-Varzaghan dual earthquakes by means of regression analyses. The derived event-specific GMPE has been compared with the NGA GMPEs for two different site conditions, that is, V (sub S30) >375 m/s (rock site) and V (sub S30) >375 m/s (soil site). The residual analysis results indicate that the NGA GMPEs perform better in predicting data recorded at rock sites compared to soil sites. For soil sites and at large periods (T=2.0 s), the observed spectral accelerations are overpredicted by the NGA GMPEs. Furthermore, as the second part of this study, to select the most adequate GMPEs, 14 strong-motion records from the 1997 Ardebil earthquake (M (sub w) 6.1) were added to the primary database. The implementation of the likelihood (LH) and log-likelihood methods, as modern LH-based ranking assessment techniques, as well as the Nash-Sutcliffe index reveal that the NGA GMPEs show good compatibility at short-medium periods (T<1.0 s) on the basis of the data recorded during the 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan dual and 1997 Ardebil earthquakes (i.e., 101 records). However, in the long-period range, the dispersion in the data does not allow the authors to draw a comprehensible conclusion.


ISSN: 0037-1106
EISSN: 1943-3573
Coden: BSSAAP
Serial Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Serial Volume: 104
Serial Issue: 5
Title: Test of goodness of the NGA ground-motion equations to predict the strong motions of the 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan dual earthquakes in northwestern Iran
Affiliation: Arak University, Department of Civil Engineering, Arak, Iran
Pages: 2512-2528
Published: 201410
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, Berkeley, CA, United States
References: 42
Accession Number: 2014-091601
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Annotation: Includes appendices
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 11 tables
N37°00'00" - N39°00'00", E46°00'00" - E48°00'00"
Secondary Affiliation: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, IRN, Iran
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2017, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 201447
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