Skip to Main Content
Skip Nav Destination

Oil production forecasts and their uncertainty analyses

Liu Chenglin, Zhu Jie, Wang Shaoqing and Liu Wenping
Oil production forecasts and their uncertainty analyses (in Petroleum resource assessment methods and case studies, Zhuoheng Chen (prefacer), Kirk G. Osadetz (prefacer), Jim Davidson (prefacer) and Mike Dawson (prefacer))
Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology (September 2012) 60 (3): 158-165


The Hubbert, multi-cyclic Gauss models can be used to forecast oil production of Ordos Basin in central China and Bohai Bay Basin in eastern China. Oil accumulation trap types (structure vs. stratigraphic traps) and exploitation technique variations contribute to different cycles of oil production for Ordos Basin. Oil production from different depressions with various time lags give rise to multiple cycles of total oil production for Bohai Bay Basin. The results show that production predictions are sensitive to the choice of model and that different models give different forecasts. The forecasts of the Hubbert and Gauss models predict that the next peak annual oil production of 35 million tons occurs around 2026 for Ordos Basin, and the next peak of 75 million tons occurs around 2020 for Bohai Bay Basin. Many economic, political, geological and technological variables may affect future oil production. Those include unstable markets, changeable rate of demand, discontinuous exploration efforts, unconventional oil estimates, and new exploration plays. If any of these variables differs significantly from the assumption on which the predictions are made, the forecasts will be different from the predictions in this paper. Production forecasts are undoubtedly important to petroleum exploration and exploitation planning by oil companies and a government's economic forecasting. However, the end users of such predictions should know the limitations of the methods and the uncertainties in the resulting predictions.

ISSN: 0007-4802
Serial Title: Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology
Serial Volume: 60
Serial Issue: 3
Title: Oil production forecasts and their uncertainty analyses
Title: Petroleum resource assessment methods and case studies
Author(s): Liu ChenglinZhu JieWang ShaoqingLiu Wenping
Author(s): Chen, Zhuohengprefacer
Author(s): Osadetz, Kirk G.prefacer
Author(s): Davidson, Jimprefacer
Author(s): Dawson, Mikeprefacer
Affiliation: Chinese Academy of Geological Science, Institute of Geomechanics, Beijing, China
Affiliation: Geological Survey of Canada, Calgary, AB, Canada
Pages: 158-165
Published: 201209
Text Language: English
Summary Language: French
Publisher: Canadian Society of Petroleum Geologists, Calgary, AB, Canada
Meeting name: Third resource assessment methodology symposium
Meeting location: Canmore, AB, CAN, Canada
Meeting date: 20100915Sept. 15-17, 2010
References: 19
Accession Number: 2013-019988
Categories: Economic geology, geology of energy sources
Document Type: Serial Conference document
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Annotation: Includes appendix
Illustration Description: illus. incl. sketch maps
N38°00'00" - N40°00'00", E117°00'00" - E119°00'00"
Secondary Affiliation: National Energy Board, CAN, CanadaMinistry of Land and Resources, CHN, ChinaChina University of Petroleum, CHN, China
Country of Publication: Canada
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2017, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Canadian Society of Petroleum Geologists. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 201313
Close Modal

or Create an Account

Close Modal
Close Modal