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From induced seismicity to direct time-dependent seismic hazard

Vincenzo Convertito, Nils Maercklin, Nitin Sharma and Aldo Zollo
From induced seismicity to direct time-dependent seismic hazard
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (December 2012) 102 (6): 2563-2573

Abstract

The growing installation of industrial facilities for subsurface exploration worldwide requires continuous refinements in understanding both the mechanisms by which seismicity is induced by field operations and the related seismic hazard. Particularly in proximity of densely populated areas, induced low-to-moderate magnitude seismicity characterized by high-frequency content can be clearly felt by the surrounding inhabitants and, in some cases, may produce damage. In this respect we propose a technique for time-dependent probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis to be used in geothermal fields as a monitoring tool for the effects of on-going field operations. The technique integrates the observed features of the seismicity induced by fluid injection and extraction with a local ground-motion prediction equation. The result of the analysis is the time-evolving probability of excedance of peak ground acceleration (PGA), which can be compared with selected critical values to manage field operations. To evaluate the reliability of the proposed technique, we applied it to data collected in The Geysers geothermal field in northern California between 1 September 2007 and 15 November 2010. We show that the period considered the seismic hazard at The Geysers was variable in time and space, which is a consequence of the field operations and the variation of both seismicity rate and b-value. We conclude that, for the exposure period taken into account (i.e., two months), as a conservative limit, PGA values corresponding to the lowest probability of exceedance (e.g., 30%) must not be exceeded to ensure safe field operations. We suggest testing the proposed technique at other geothermal areas or in regions where seismicity is induced, for example, by hydrocarbon exploitation or carbon dioxide storage.


ISSN: 0037-1106
EISSN: 1943-3573
Coden: BSSAAP
Serial Title: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Serial Volume: 102
Serial Issue: 6
Title: From induced seismicity to direct time-dependent seismic hazard
Affiliation: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Observatorio Vesuviano, Naples, Italy
Pages: 2563-2573
Published: 201212
Text Language: English
Publisher: Seismological Society of America, Berkeley, CA, United States
References: 38
Accession Number: 2013-010717
Categories: Seismology
Document Type: Serial
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 2 tables, sketch maps
N38°40'00" - N38°40'00", W122°55'00" - W122°55'00"
Secondary Affiliation: Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk, ITA, ItalyUniversita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, ITA, Italy
Country of Publication: United States
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2017, American Geosciences Institute. Abstract, Copyright, Seismological Society of America. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States
Update Code: 201308
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