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Landslide risk assessment; the challenge of estimating the probability of landsliding

E. M. Lee
Landslide risk assessment; the challenge of estimating the probability of landsliding (in Engineering geology in geotechnical risk management, Steve Parry)
Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology (November 2009) 42 (4): 445-458

Abstract

Quantitative landslide risk assessment (QRA) presents major challenges to the geoscience community, because it requires the numerical expression of the chance of future landsliding. The difficulty lies in different perceptions about how precise and reliable this numerical expression has to be in order to be of value to the users of a risk assessment. The absence of suitable landslide time series datasets in most regions of the world and the fact that many landslides are essentially one-off events means that it is generally not practical to expect that estimates of landslide probability will be "objective" truths, supported by "hard facts". In most cases the estimation of landslide probability will be based on judgement, making use of the available data, knowledge and experience. It follows, therefore that quantitative landslide QRA cannot be based on "objective truths", relying on the subjective beliefs of the experts involved. In many cases a combination of these two approaches is required. A healthy scepticism is needed when using the results from a landslide risk assessment.


ISSN: 1470-9236
EISSN: 2041-4803
Serial Title: Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology
Serial Volume: 42
Serial Issue: 4
Title: Landslide risk assessment; the challenge of estimating the probability of landsliding
Title: Engineering geology in geotechnical risk management
Author(s): Lee, E. M.
Author(s): Parry, Steve
Affiliation: 15 Whernside Avenue, York, United Kingdom
Affiliation: GeoRisk Solutions, Hong Kong, China
Pages: 445-458
Published: 200911
Text Language: English
Publisher: Geological Society of London, London, United Kingdom
Meeting name: Engineering geology in geotechnical risk management
Meeting location: Hong Kong, CHN, China
Meeting date: 20071124Nov. 24, 2007
References: 53
Accession Number: 2010-010519
Categories: Engineering geology
Document Type: Serial Conference document
Bibliographic Level: Analytic
Illustration Description: illus. incl. 3 tables
N22°04'60" - N22°34'60", E113°49'60" - E114°30'00"
N50°00'00" - N61°00'00", W08°00'00" - E02°00'00"
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
Secondary Affiliation: GeoRef, Copyright 2017, American Geosciences Institute. Reference includes data from GeoScienceWorld, Alexandria, VA, United States. Reference includes data from The Geological Society, London, London, United Kingdom
Update Code: 201007
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